{"model":"Ferguson Investment Theory (1995/2013/2022)","r_squared":0.71,"data_source":"Ferguson, Jorgensen, Chen (2022) Structural Change & Economic Dynamics","viability_threshold":40.0,"as_of":"April 2026","cycle":2028,"candidates":[{"id":"pete_buttigieg","name":"Pete Buttigieg","short_name":"Buttigieg","ferguson_score":63.6,"above_viability_threshold":true,"status":"VIABLE","momentum":"rising","nom_probability":28.4,"components":{"fundraising_position":72.0,"signal_donor_score":55.0,"bundler_network_score":60.0,"velocity_score":65.0,"investor_coalition_score":58.0},"historical_parallel":"Buttigieg 2020 Q1: $7.1M → peaked at $24.8M Q2","comparable_cycle":"Obama Q1 2007 trajectory (but smaller base)","obama_network":"yellow","note":"Axelrod Apr 2026 signal; clean financial record; transport record questions"},{"id":"kamala_harris","name":"Kamala Harris","short_name":"Harris","ferguson_score":63.4,"above_viability_threshold":true,"status":"WATCHING","momentum":"rising","nom_probability":26.1,"components":{"fundraising_position":55.0,"signal_donor_score":70.0,"bundler_network_score":72.0,"velocity_score":62.0,"investor_coalition_score":60.0},"historical_parallel":"Harris 2024: $81M/24hr proves bundler activation capacity","comparable_cycle":"Biden 2020 — inherited network, needs new signal","obama_network":"yellow","note":"NAN Convention warmest reception Apr 2026; 2024 loss = electability headwinds"},{"id":"gavin_newsom","name":"Gavin Newsom","short_name":"Newsom","ferguson_score":59.0,"above_viability_threshold":true,"status":"WATCHING","momentum":"stable","nom_probability":18.2,"components":{"fundraising_position":58.0,"signal_donor_score":62.0,"bundler_network_score":65.0,"velocity_score":45.0,"investor_coalition_score":70.0},"historical_parallel":"Similar to Clinton 2016: large donor base, viability questions","comparable_cycle":"Clinton 2015 Q2 bundler lock-in pattern (but without incumbency)","obama_network":"yellow","note":"Large CA donor base; 'California-only' perception risk; Pritzker overlap"},{"id":"gretchen_whitmer","name":"Gretchen Whitmer","short_name":"Whitmer","ferguson_score":57.1,"above_viability_threshold":true,"status":"VIABLE","momentum":"stable","nom_probability":13.7,"components":{"fundraising_position":66.0,"signal_donor_score":50.0,"bundler_network_score":55.0,"velocity_score":52.0,"investor_coalition_score":55.0},"historical_parallel":"Similar to Biden 2020 Q1: building quietly","comparable_cycle":"Biden Q1 2019 trajectory (below-radar establishment choice)","obama_network":"yellow","note":"Swing state governor; high electability; limited national network yet"},{"id":"josh_shapiro","name":"Josh Shapiro","short_name":"Shapiro","ferguson_score":54.3,"above_viability_threshold":true,"status":"VIABLE","momentum":"rising","nom_probability":8.9,"components":{"fundraising_position":60.0,"signal_donor_score":48.0,"bundler_network_score":50.0,"velocity_score":58.0,"investor_coalition_score":52.0},"historical_parallel":"PA-anchored; similar to Gore 2000 regional establishment build","comparable_cycle":"Kerry 2004 Q1 pre-surge trajectory","obama_network":"yellow","note":"Was Harris VP shortlist; swing-state executive credibility"},{"id":"jb_pritzker","name":"JB Pritzker","short_name":"Pritzker","ferguson_score":48.6,"above_viability_threshold":true,"status":"WATCHING","momentum":"stable","nom_probability":4.7,"components":{"fundraising_position":52.0,"signal_donor_score":45.0,"bundler_network_score":48.0,"velocity_score":42.0,"investor_coalition_score":65.0},"historical_parallel":"Bloomberg 2020 self-fund model; Rockefeller 1964 parallel","comparable_cycle":"Bloomberg pre-2020: self-fund buys visibility but not coalition","obama_network":"grey","note":"Self-funder; dual candidate/donor role; billionaire risk in progressive primary"},{"id":"cory_booker","name":"Cory Booker","short_name":"Booker","ferguson_score":32.9,"above_viability_threshold":false,"status":"LONG SHOT","momentum":"stable","nom_probability":0.0,"components":{"fundraising_position":35.0,"signal_donor_score":30.0,"bundler_network_score":32.0,"velocity_score":35.0,"investor_coalition_score":30.0},"historical_parallel":"Edwards 2004: trial lawyer money but no core investor bloc","comparable_cycle":"Booker 2020: below-threshold, withdrew Feb 2020","obama_network":"grey","note":"Below viability threshold historically; thin national donor base"},{"id":"aoc","name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","short_name":"AOC","ferguson_score":30.8,"above_viability_threshold":false,"status":"LONG SHOT","momentum":"rising","nom_probability":0.0,"components":{"fundraising_position":28.0,"signal_donor_score":40.0,"bundler_network_score":10.0,"velocity_score":55.0,"investor_coalition_score":15.0},"historical_parallel":"Sanders 2016/2020: massive small-dollar, zero institutional","comparable_cycle":"Sanders Q4 2015: top small-dollar, zero bundler network = lost","obama_network":"red","note":"Small-dollar powerhouse; Ferguson predicts loss without investor coalition"},{"id":"andy_beshear","name":"Andy Beshear","short_name":"Beshear","ferguson_score":19.8,"above_viability_threshold":false,"status":"LONG SHOT","momentum":"stable","nom_probability":0.0,"components":{"fundraising_position":22.0,"signal_donor_score":15.0,"bundler_network_score":18.0,"velocity_score":25.0,"investor_coalition_score":20.0},"historical_parallel":"Beshear profile similar to pre-2004 Wes Clark: late entry, no network","comparable_cycle":"O'Malley 2016: never raised enough; bundler network blacklisted","obama_network":"grey","note":"KY governor; thin national profile; below viability threshold"}],"model_formula":"score = fundraising_position×0.35 + signal_donor_score×0.25 + bundler_network_score×0.20 + velocity_score×0.15 + investor_coalition_score×0.05","notes":["Q4 year-before fundraising explains 71% of nomination probability variance (1992-2020 Dems)","Candidates below threshold (~40) have historically <5% nomination rate","Trump 2016 is the single clean exception (earned media substituted for donor capital)","Signal donor cascade: average 47 days from first-mover to bundler network activation"],"generated_at":"2026-06-14T21:39:26.079001+00:00"}