17
Ridgeline Plot — Polling Distribution Shifts
Distribution of recent polls across 6 key Senate races
SOURCED
GA-SEN: Emerson/Nexstar Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026 (n=1,000 LV, ±3.0%) · Other races: CDO backend API + Cook Political
as of …
18
Beeswarm Poll Chart HONEST GAP
Individual public polls sized by sample size, colored by pollster rating
A+ Pollster
B Pollster
C Pollster
Methodology — Beeswarm Polls SOURCED (when populated) as of …
Real-polls-only render. Source pollsters: Emerson College / Nexstar Media, Opinion Diagnostics, High Point University, Catawba / YouGov, On Message Inc. Pollster grades from 538 pollster ratings. Bubble area ∝ sample size; vertical jitter is collision-avoidance only.
GA-SEN Emerson as of …
OH-SEN On Message as of …
NC-SEN Opinion Diagnostics as of …
NC-SEN HPU as of …
NC-SEN Catawba/YouGov as of …
Sources linked per bubble on hover. Roadmap: live public-poll ingestion (DEV_PLAN Phase 8) will auto-populate this chart.
19
Sankey Voter Flow Diagram ESTIMATED
2020 → 2024 → 2026 voter alignment shifts (real endpoints, Pew-validated retention interpolations)
Methodology — Voter Flow SOURCED endpoints + ESTIMATED retention as of …
Endpoints (the corner totals): 2020 Biden 81.3M / Trump 74.2M, 2024 Harris ~75.0M / Trump ~77.3M (AP final certified). 2026 projection from RCP Senate-race composites. Did-Not-Vote baseline from U.S. Elections Project 2022 midterm. The 18 cross-tab link values are ESTIMATED — not measured retention rates. They apply the Pew 2024 validated-voter retention rule-set (~85% party loyalty, ~5% switching, ~8% dropoff) to the real endpoints. Tooltip values are read as percentage of source-period electorate, not raw vote counts — rendering a raw-count label would imply a measured cross-tab we do not have.
AP final 2024 endpoints as of …
Pew 2024 validated-voter retention rules as of …
Sources: Pew 2024 validated-voter report for retention rules; AP/Dave Leip final certified results for endpoints. Roadmap: when Catalist 2024 validated cross-tabs publish, swap rule-based estimates for measured rates.
20
GA-SEN Poll Results by GOP Matchup — Ossoff Two-Party Share
Real data: Emerson/Nexstar Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026 · n=1,000 LV · MOE ±3.0% · Error bars shown
Converted from prior placeholder candlestick → real poll bar chart. Ossoff leads all GOP matchups within current polling.
Carter is most likely nominee based on primary polling average (Collins +16.7 pts, per RCP/270toWin Mar 9 2026).
21
Narrative Contagion Network
Force-directed story spread across news sources
★ Origin
National
Critical coverage
Counter-narrative
SOURCED
Methodology: Real story: "Republicans Unveil $342M Senate Battle Plan" (NYT, Apr 6 2026 14:00 ET). 11 outlets confirmed via CDO backend
/narrative/contagion RSS scraping. Gold node (★) = origin outlet. Edges animate in real chronological order.
22
Scenario Fan Chart — Ossoff GA-SEN Projection ESTIMATED
50/80/95% confidence bands to election day, anchored on a single sourced poll (center is FLAT at the anchor; only bands widen)
Methodology — Fan Chart ESTIMATED as of …
Single sourced anchor: Ossoff vs. average GOP matchup share ≈ 52.9% on Mar 2 2026 (Emerson/Nexstar; range 51.6–54.4% across three GOP candidates). Trajectory to Nov 2026: the center line is FLAT at the 52.9 anchor (a uniform-prior random walk has constant expectation — only the uncertainty bands widen with horizon). 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.2 Pod 3 fix: prior version rendered a rising 48.5→52.1 trajectory under the same caption, which contradicts the random-walk-prior claim (a flat curve is the correct representation). Bands widen symmetrically around the anchor; the displayed range at Nov 2026 reflects uniform-prior pp/mo growth. This is a scenario, not a forecast. If no new polls land between now and Nov, the FLAT 52.9 is the prior, not the posterior.
Anchor source: Emerson College / Nexstar Feb 28–Mar 2 2026. Roadmap: live anchor refresh from public-poll watcher (DEV_PLAN Phase 8).
23
Adaptive Cartogram — Senate Battleground SOURCED
Toggle metrics · Click state for county-level detail
Methodology — Cartogram Metrics SOURCED as of …
Persuadability: 60% inverse |2024 2-party margin| + 40% 2020→2024 swing magnitude. Sources: Brookings Jan 3 2025, Sabato Crystal Ball Dec 2024, AP/Dave Leip final certified 2024. Fundraising Density: FEC Q4 2025 cycle totals per state, normalized 0–100. Turnout Propensity: 2022 VEP % from U.S. Elections Project (Michael McDonald, UF) · Pew Mar 10 2023; national avg 45.1%.
Brookings 2024 recap as of …
U.S. Elections Project as of …
MIT Election Lab as of …
Per-state values displayed on hover. County-level click-through: 2020 actuals SOURCED from MIT Election Data & Science Lab; 2026 predictions ANALYST (linear extrapolation of 2020→2024 swing, replace with VAN/PDI forecast when ingested).
24
Horizon Chart — Multi-Race Tracker ANALYST
10 competitive races · time scrubber replays Jan–Apr 2026
April 2026
Methodology — Horizon Chart ANALYST + SOURCED anchors as of …
Anchor polls available (terminal-month only): GA-SEN (Emerson Mar 2 2026 D+3), NC-SEN (HPU/Catawba/Opinion Diagnostics Apr 2026 D+9), OH-SEN (Emerson Aug 18–19 2025 D−6 + On Message Inc. Mar 3–8 2026 D+2; Emerson + Cook-verified), TX-SEN (TPOR Apr 17–20 2026 D+3, single anchor; Cook still Likely R) — only the right-edge (April 2026) value of each of these four rows is anchored on a real poll; the preceding 11 monthly values per row are analyst interpolation from the Catalyst projection model. Unanchored rows (fully ANALYST): MT-SEN, MI-SEN, FL-SEN — Catalyst projection from Cook Political rating midbands + 2024 cycle baseline. Roadmap: replace each ANALYST row with measured polling as 2026 cycle polls land. Methodology corrected 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.3 Pod 3 audit (prior version said the three anchored rows were “SOURCED” while the honest-gap banner directly above said all month time-series are analyst projections — banner-vs-card contradiction resolved by making the methodology card match the banner). Phase 8.2.4 Sweep I correction 2026-05-17: REMOVED AZ-SEN, NV-SEN, PA-SEN, WI-SEN from ANALYST roster — these states have no 2026 Senate seat in cycle, so projecting a 2026 race for them violated M1 (no fake data). Sweep J correction 2026-05-17: TX-SEN moved from ANALYST roster to anchored row — TPOR Apr 17–20 poll falsified the prior “no public H2H poll in Jan–Apr 2026 window” claim that lived on index.html.
Sources linked in ridgeline methodology block above + Cook Political Senate Ratings.
25
Cross-Signal Synthesis Timeline — Ossoff GA-SEN ANALYST
Normalized signal blend (poll · news sentiment · fundraising) — social removed (no verifiable feed)
Methodology — Cross-Signal Synthesis ANALYST as of …
Each signal is normalized 0–100 and shown as a separate series. Real anchors: Poll (Emerson Mar 2 2026), Fundraising (FEC Q1 2026 normalized), News Sentiment (CDO backend /narrative/sentiment?race=GA-SEN when reachable). The interstitial month values are analyst interpolation — not measured monthly polls. Social-sentiment series previously shown has been removed (no verifiable feed). Read as a strategic-overview composite, not a forecast.
Sources linked in respective methodology cards above. Roadmap: full real-signal synthesis available only for races where all three signal types have ≥3 measured monthly observations.