ⓘ

Maps the invisible primary calendar from now through Iowa 2028. The shaded 'threshold window' (Sep–Dec 2026) is when signal donors must commit to produce viable Q4-1 fundraising position — the single strongest predictor in Ferguson's model. Historical reference lines show when past nominees crossed each milestone.

ⓘ

Tracks the ~20 donors and bundlers whose first-mover commitments have historically triggered cascade effects in prior primaries (see Biden 2020: Clyburn → 72-hour nomination sequence). 'Commit probability' is estimated from public signals. 'Cascade effect' shows which actors a commitment would activate next. Watch the 'days to optimal window' column — timing matters as much as the commit itself.

ⓘ

Quick-reference action table distilling each candidate's single highest-leverage intervention based on the causal graph. Use this to prioritize outreach sequencing — the probability impact estimates are based on historical effect sizes from Grade-A causal evidence (event studies, diff-in-diff). Window = optimal timing for maximum cascade effect.

Dark Money Overlay: CDO tracks $1.9B in undisclosed political spending flowing through 501(c)(4) organizations, 527s, and shell PACs. While dark money doesn't directly determine Ferguson scores, it shapes the media environment, voter contact operations, and elite signaling that candidates need. Candidates with strong dark money infrastructure backing have a 2.3× advantage in the invisible primary. → Full Dark Money Tracker

Network Intelligence: CDO tracks the campaign managers, senior strategists, and chief consultants who run America's most competitive races. The key insight: fewer than 20 operatives directed over $6.8B in combined campaign and dark money spending across 80+ races in 2024. These are the hidden nodes of political power — the people who decide how billions are spent, which messages dominate, and which candidates live or die.