Pre-computed step-by-step influence campaign for each candidate, derived from Dijkstra shortest-path analysis on the 68-actor causal influence graph, weighted by influence_weight × causal confidence. Phases are ordered by cascade dependency — complete Phase 1 before Phase 2 unlocks. Probability impacts are additive estimates based on Grade-A historical effect sizes. Status tracks execution progress.
Track live influence operations across Planning → In Progress → Executed → Measuring stages. Each card represents a specific actor engagement. Cascade dependencies are shown — some operations cannot start until predecessors complete. Drag cards between columns as operations advance. Click any card to expand the full action brief.
Real-time nomination probability for all candidates, updated as operations are logged. The 'what would move the needle most' section below each bar is the key action signal — it identifies the single highest-expected-value intervention available right now. Use 'Scenario' to model what happens if a specific actor commits to any candidate.
Log and interpret incoming signals — endorsements, public statements, donor meetings, fundraising reports, polling shifts. Each signal is assessed for its downstream cascade effect on nomination probabilities. Use the manual entry form to log new intelligence; the system will recompute affected probabilities automatically.
Comprehensive strategic intelligence document for each candidate — synthesizes Ferguson model position, actor network status, threat landscape, and 30/90-day action priorities into a single decision-support brief. Update when: a signal donor commits, a rival secures a major endorsement, or Q-filing deadlines pass. Generated by Catalyst Intelligence Engine using Ferguson Model v2.1.
| Race | State | FEC (R) | Dark (R) | Total R | FEC (D) | Dark (D) | Total D | Grand Total | Dark % | R/D Balance |
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| OPERATIVE ↕ | FIRM ↕ | PARTY ↕ | RACES ↕ | TOTAL FUNDS ↕ | WIN RATE ↕ | TOP 3 RACES |
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