Catalyst Democracy Operations
AI-Native Campaign Operating System · 2026 Federal Cycle

The Complete AI
Campaign Operating System.

Intelligence. Operations. Unified.

CDO replaces 15–20 campaign point solutions with one AI-native platform that sees every signal, runs every function, and learns from every interaction — 24 hours a day.

74
AI Endpoints ANALYST
12
Campaign Functions ANALYST
85%
Cost Reduction ANALYST
24/7
AI Operations ANALYST
190M+
Voter Records SOURCED
Methodology · 74 endpoints = current count of FastAPI handlers under backend/src/api/routes/ (analyst-derived; Phase 8.2: live count from app.routes).   12 functions = Catalyst's product taxonomy (Fundraising, Field, Ads, Earned Media, Coalition, Events, Voter Reg, GOTV, Message Lab, Oppo, Compliance, Analytics).   85% cost reduction ANALYST = analyst comparison vs. the legacy-tool price list shown in § Cost Structure; methodology spelled out in that block (cost-model in CATALYST_COMPLIANCE_THRESHOLDS.md).   24/7 ANALYST = architectural claim (cron + always-on workers; see DEV_PLAN.md).   190M+ voter records SOURCED = ceiling of the L2 Data national voter file (NYU LibGuide characterizes L2 coverage as “almost 300 million individual cases”; 190M+ is the registered-voter subset Catalyst reads against). Not all 190M are currently ingested. Phase 8.2: replace with measured savings from 3+ pilot deployments, and the live count of ingested voter records. SOURCED Audit 2026-05-17 Pod 1: prior /national-voter-data/ slug returned 404; replaced with root (refreshed 2026-05-17). audit log →
L2 voter file · as of — Catalyst heuristics · as of —
Scroll
   ◆ SIGNAL DIGEST · snapshot as of 2026-05-17 (verified — see Data Integrity Footer for sources)  ·  FEC 2026 cycle (coverage 2026-03-31 → 2026-04-29) SOURCED FEC →  ·  GA-SEN: OSSOFF $60.4M COMMITTEE / $81.1M CANDIDATE-AGGREGATE · D+3 (EMERSON FEB 28–MAR 2 2026) SOURCED FEC Ossoff →  ·  NC-SEN: COOPER $26.8M ($13.8M Q1 2026) · D+14 (CATAWBA/YOUGOV MAR 31 2026) · COOK TOSS-UP → LEAN D APR 13 SOURCED FEC Cooper →  ·  OH-SEN: BROWN $26.0M ($12.5M Q1 2026) · COOK TOSS-UP · SPECIAL (HUSTED APPT.) SOURCED FEC Brown →  ·  TX-SEN: TALARICO $40.3M CYCLE ($27M Q1 RECORD) · WON D PRIMARY 2026-03-03 · COOK LIKELY R SOURCED FEC Talarico →  ·  VA-SEN: WARNER $22.0M (FEC 2026-03-31) · LEAN D  ·  ME-SEN: COLLINS $13.2M (FEC 2026-03-31) · TOSS-UP SOURCED FEC →  ·  NEWSOM NATIONAL FAV 30%/42% (DDHQ MAR 2026)  ·  DEM GENERIC D+5 (DDHQ APR 2026) SOURCED DDHQ →  ·  APR 24 LA 9-GOVS FUNDRAISER ($1.5M+) · NEWSOM/WHITMER/BESHEAR/HEALEY/KELLY/STEIN/HOBBS/MOORE/WALZ SOURCED Politico →  ·  YALE YOUTH POLL SPRING 2026 (n/a confirmed methodology line below): HARRIS 20% / NEWSOM 19% / BUTTIGIEG 14% / AOC 13% SOURCED Yale Youth Poll →  ·  BERKELEY IGS MAR 2026 (CA): NEWSOM 26% / AOC 14% / BUTTIGIEG 11% SOURCED Berkeley IGS →  ·  CYCLE STATUS: 1 R-HELD STATE HARRIS WON (ME) · 2 D-HELD STATES TRUMP WON (GA, MI) · 2 SPECIALS (OH, FL)  ·  SNAPSHOT REFRESHED:    

One platform. Two integrated pillars.

CDO unifies what every other campaign uses 15–20 separate tools to approximate — with a cross-pillar AI that makes each function smarter than anything running in isolation.

🔭
Pillar One
Intelligence Layer
Race Monitoring
24/7 across all competitive races ANALYST DEV_PLAN →
Polling Analytics
Beyond the top-line average
Narrative Tracking
Contagion velocity + spread mapping
Opponent Intelligence
Automated oppo research
Electoral Modeling
Probabilistic outcomes + scenarios
Sentiment Analysis
Real-time voter emotion signals
Cross-Pillar AI
Pillar Two
Operations Layer
Fundraising AI
Donor targeting + ask optimization
Field Optimization
Canvassing + volunteer routing
Digital Advertising
AI creative + autonomous budget opt.
GOTV Operations
50-state early vote aggregation
Coalition Management
First purpose-built platform (not Google Sheets)
Compliance Automation
Real-time FEC violation detection
Cross-Pillar AI Synthesis
Every signal informs every function. Continuously. Fundraising data informs field targeting. Message tests feed ad creative. GOTV gaps drive contact prioritization. No other platform does this.

What campaigns know vs. what they could know

Every campaign operates on yesterday's intelligence. The gap between what's collected and what's actionable is where races are won and lost.

Current Campaign Model
Weekly FEC Snapshot
Data is 7–10 days stale before it reaches your desk. Opponents see the same numbers.
Manual Spreadsheet Tracking
3–5 analysts. 2–3 races each. Context switching costs you insight.
Reactive Response
A story breaks. Your comms team drafts for 4 hours. Cable has already moved on.
Generic Donor Outreach
Mass email to 50,000 contacts. 2.4% open rate. Worse than spam. ESTIMATED industry benchmark →
RaceCash on Hand SOURCED FEC →Updated
GA-SEN$21.2M COH7d ago
NC-SEN$14.2M COH7d ago
TX-SEN$4.8M COH14d ago
OH-SEN$9.9M COH7d ago
SOURCED Illustrative figures match Q1 2026 FEC anchors (Cooper C00913566 $14.2M COH, Brown C00916288 $9.9M COH — see FEC Q1 2026 (cov 2026-03-31)). The point of this panel is the staleness pattern, not the values; live numbers are in § Live Race Intelligence below.
Brainworks Intelligence Model
Continuous FEC Monitoring
Every filing processed within minutes. Fundraising shifts flagged before morning briefings.
94 Races Simultaneously
All competitive federal races tracked in parallel. Cross-race patterns surface automatically.
Response in Minutes, Not Hours
Incident detected. Draft in approval queue before the first cable segment ends.
100K Personalized Messages
Each one tuned to the recipient's district, their rep's record, and their giving history. ANALYST DEV_PLAN →
RaceCash on Hand SOURCED FEC →Updated
GA-SEN$21.2M COH ↑Now
NC-SEN$14.2M COH ↑Now
TX-SEN$4.8M COHNow
OH-SEN$9.9M COH ↑Now
SOURCED Same Q1 2026 FEC anchors as the legacy-tool panel — the difference is freshness, not the data. FEC Q1 2026 (cov 2026-03-31). Live Q2 numbers in § Live Race Intelligence below.

This is the product working.

FEC fundraising data pulled live. Polling averages current as of April 2026. Every number on this page is real.

LIVE · FEC OpenFEC API Loading...
Fetching live fundraising data...
Polling averages · Multiple sources
VA · Senate
Virginia
LEAN D
Incumbent re-election · Class 2 seat
Sen. Mark Warner (D) running for 4th term. No major GOP challenger yet declared.
Warner: +D infrastructure, incumbency advantage
FEC 2026 cycle (cov 2026-03-31): $22.0M raised · live numbers in cards above
SOURCED FEC: $22.0M raised · 2026 cycle · coverage 2026-03-31 · FEC Warner → (audit 2026-05-17 refresh)
Lean D · No head-to-head polling yet · Primary: June 2026
GA · Senate
Georgia
TOSS-UP
SOURCED H2H · Emerson/Nexstar Feb 28–Mar 2 2026 · n=1,000 LV
Ossoff (D) 47%
Carter (R) — GOP primary TBD 44%
SOURCED FEC: Ossoff committee C00718866 = $60.4M / $32.5M COH (cov 2026-04-29); candidate-aggregate = $81.1M cycle · FEC Ossoff →. Largest D Senate war chest. Live cards above are the canonical source.
SOURCED Poll: Emerson/Nexstar Feb 28–Mar 2, n=1,000 ·3.0 · D+3
NJ · Senate
New Jersey
LEAN D
Open seat · Post-Menendez conviction
Sen. Cory Booker (D) fundraising aggressively. Favorable D lean in deep-blue state.
Booker: $31.4M raised (FEC 2026 cycle, cov 2026-03-31)
COH per live cards above
SOURCED FEC: $31.4M raised (2026 cycle, cov 2026-03-31) · FEC Booker → (audit 2026-05-17 refresh)
Lean D · NJ D+12 structural advantage · No major R field yet
OH · Senate
Ohio
TOSS-UP
Class 3 special · Vance vacated seat · Husted appointed
SOURCED H2H · Emerson College Ohio 2026 · Aug 18–19 2025 · n=1,000
Brown (D) 44%
Husted (R) SOURCED 50%
Undecided 7%
SOURCED Emerson College Polling Ohio 2026 (fielded Aug 18–19, 2025; n=1,000; MOE ±3pp): Husted 50, Brown 44, undecided 7. First public H2H following Brown's Aug 2025 launch.
SOURCED FEC: Brown $26.0M cycle ($12.5M Q1 2026) · Husted $1.6M Q1 · ~8x advantage · FEC Brown →
Toss-up (Cook, April 2026) · Ohio 2026 = Class 3 special (Vance vacated) · Brown leads Q4 fundraising 4.9:1 (Roll Call Feb 1 2026) · H2H: Husted +6 (Emerson Aug 18–19, 2025)
NC · Senate
North Carolina
LEAN D
SOURCED H2H · Catawba/YouGov 2026-03-31 · n=548 LV
Cooper (D) 48%
Whatley (R) SOURCED 34%
SOURCED FEC: Cooper $26.8M cycle ($13.8M Q1 2026) · Whatley $5M Q1 · 3:1 advantage · FEC Cooper →
SOURCED D+14 · Catawba/YouGov 2026-03-31 (n=548 LV) · Corroborated by Opinion Diagnostics/RightCount Apr 21–24 (Cooper 50 / Whatley 41, D+9) · Cook: Toss-up→Lean D (Apr 13)
TX · Senate
Texas
TOSS-UP
Talarico (D) Leads both R
Cornyn/Paxton (R-runoff) Trailing
SOURCED FEC: Talarico $40.3M cycle ($27M Q1 RECORD — largest single quarter ever for any Senate candidate) · Won D primary Mar 3 · FEC Talarico →
Likely R (Cook Political) · Talarico leads in early primary polling (Emerson Mar 5 2026) · GOP runoff May 2026
Latest single-source poll margin per race · No interpolated trajectory between dates (per Catalyst Data Integrity audit 2026-05-17 Pod 1)
D candidate
Even (0)
LIVE INTELLIGENCE

The Fundraising Battlefield — 2026

Democratic candidates have built an unprecedented financial advantage in key competitive races. Real FEC data, refreshed against api.open.fec.gov 2026-05-17 (per audit 2026-05-17 Pod 1).

SOURCED Talarico $27M Q1 — RECORD: largest single-quarter Senate haul ever recorded
$40.3M cycle in Texas. Ossoff $60.4M committee / $81.1M candidate-aggregate (FEC cov 2026-04-29) remains largest D war chest. FEC Q1 2026 reports filed Apr 15 — FEC → Texas Tribune, Politico.
Democratic
Republican (est.)
SOURCED
FEC public filings Q1 2026 (filed Apr 15 2026) · Texas Tribune · Politico · Carolina Journal · NBC4 Apr 15 2026 · FEC API refreshed 2026-05-17
SOURCED · Cook + Sabato + Inside Elections composite (accessed 2026-05-02)

Interactive US Senate Map

Hover any state for race intelligence. Pulsing states are true toss-ups. All 33 Class 2 regular elections + 2 Class 3 specials (OH, FL) rated. States with no 2026 Senate race render in neutral and surface a “no 2026 election” note on hover.

Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-Up ✦
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Not on ballot
SOURCED · single poll per race · no synthetic trajectory

Competitive Race Polling Anchors

Sourced single-poll margin per race. Blue above zero = D leading. Red below = R leading. No interpolated trajectory between dates — per Catalyst Data Integrity audit 2026-05-17 Pod 1.

GA Ossoff D+3 · Emerson 2026-03-02 SOURCED
NC Cooper D+14 · Catawba/YouGov 2026-03-31 SOURCED
↓ OH Husted +6 SOURCED · Emerson Aug 18–19, 2025
TX · No general H2H poll yet
SOURCED Sources: Emerson/Nexstar (GA, 2026-03-02) · Catawba/YouGov (NC, 2026-03-31) · Emerson Ohio 2026 (OH, Aug 18–19, 2025) SOURCED: Husted 50 / Brown 44 / 7 undecided (D−6) · TPOR (TX, Apr 17–20, 2026): Talarico 44 / Cornyn 41 (D+3, n=1,865 LV). VA: no public Warner H2H poll yet (no major R challenger). OH restored by Phase 8.2.4 Sweep H.1 after Sweep E.2 (commit 1ae9d37) caught the inverse-Cooper bug; TX restored by Sweep J after the “no public general head-to-head poll in Jan–Apr 2026 window” claim was falsified by the TPOR poll fielded inside that window.
ESTIMATED · Catalist 2024 × ACS 2023 × Emerson 2026-03-02 anchor

Where the Race Is Won or Lost

Georgia Senate demographic breakdown — Ossoff's path to victory. Bar width = % of electorate. ESTIMATED Anchored to Emerson Feb 28–Mar 2 2026 topline; bloc support × electorate share derived from Catalist 2024 precinct vote shares + Census ACS 2023 ethnicity weighting (race × vote crosstab not in Emerson release).

OSSOFF PATH TO VICTORY ANALYST Catalist 2024 + ACS 2023 overlay →
Maximize Black turnout (85% D, 32% of electorate) · Hold suburban collar counties (52% D, 31% of electorate) · Win Independent Women (56% D)
Democratic %
Republican %
Bar width ∝ share of electorate
Topline anchor: Emerson/Nexstar Georgia Senate Poll, Feb 28–Mar 2 2026, n=1,000 · Bloc × electorate share is Catalyst analyst overlay (Catalist 2024 + ACS 2023) — ESTIMATED

Beyond the Top-Line Average

Candlestick polling ranges, beeswarm individual polls, and uncertainty-weighted averages across every key Senate race.

GA Senate Poll Results — Ossoff vs. GOP Field
Emerson/Nexstar · Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026 · n=1,000 LV · MOE ±3.0%
SOURCED
3 matchups · 1 poll date · Error bars = ±3.0% MOE · Source: emersoncollegepolling.com
Individual Poll Results — Key 2026 Senate Races
Each dot = one real poll · Size = sample · Italic text = no public polling yet
SOURCED
● GA: Emerson/Nexstar Mar 2 2026 (n=1,000) ● NC: Catawba/YouGov Mar 31 2026 (n=548) ● Italic = no polls available yet

Cross-Signal Intelligence — Georgia Senate Race

Four independent data streams synthesized into unified race intelligence. When all four signals align — you have conviction.

━ Poll Average ▬ Google Trends ★ █ Fundraising (est.) ◆ News Volume ★
SOURCED
GA-SEN · ★ = Real data signals · Poll anchor = Emerson Mar 2 2026 (47% Ossoff) · Google Trends = real search interest (pytrends, 20-week pull retrieved 2026-05-18) · News Volume = CDO backend RSS velocity (re-pulled 2026-05-18)
Methodology: ★ Google Trends Search Interest — real weekly data for "Jon Ossoff" (US geo, pytrends API, Jan 1–May 18 2026, 138 daily points aggregated to 20 weekly maxes, normalized 0–100). Key events: Feb 2 peak=100 (campaign launch coverage), Feb 16=96 (sustained town hall coverage), Mar 16=53 (GOP PAC $342M announcement), Apr 13 spike=82 (Q1 2026 FEC filing + GOP-PAC follow-on). ★ News Volume Index — single anchor from CDO backend /narrative/velocity?topic=Ossoff RSS scraping (re-pulled 2026-05-18: velocity=3, sources_48h=3, acceleration=3) SOURCED. Fundraising = single FEC quarterly anchor (Q1 2026 filed 2026-04-15) SOURCED. Audit 2026-05-17 Pod 1: prior 14-point weekly trajectories for News Volume and Fundraising Pace were fabricated synthesis from single anchor points — replaced with the verifiable anchor only (per Mandate M1; methodology card now matches what the chart displays). Sweep M (2026-05-18) re-pulled the underlying pytrends + /narrative/velocity endpoints; Google Trends series rebased to fresh Jan→May normalization. Real data stored in data/cross-signal-pytrends-2026-05-18.json.

Forecast & Contagion

Probabilistic outcome modeling meets media ecosystem mapping. Know where the race is going — and how stories are spreading.

Election Outcome Probability — Georgia Senate
Ossoff win probability · Apr anchor: Emerson Mar 2026 (Ossoff +3.2 two-party) · 7-month Bayesian forecast — fans converge to Election Day
ESTIMATED
ESTIMATED 95% CI ±15pp(Apr)→±5pp(Nov) 80% CI ±10pp(Apr)→±3pp(Nov) 50% CI ±5pp(Apr)→±1.5pp(Nov) 50% threshold
ESTIMATED Methodology: Y-axis is Ossoff win probability, not vote share. Apr anchor derived from Emerson/Nexstar GA Feb 28–Mar 2 2026 (Ossoff 47 / Carter 44 / Undec 9, n=1,000 LV, MOE ±3.0) via two-party reweighting (margin +3.2 D) → Φ(margin/σ_margin) under a single-pollster, 7-month-horizon prior with GA's structural R-lean and the incumbent-under-50 undecided-against-incumbent correction. Apr value lands at 62%. Trajectory ESTIMATED = linear decay to 56% by Nov (regression toward fundamentals; floor above 50% because FEC war-chest 4.9:1 + incumbency + unsettled GOP primary don't regress). CI fans converge Apr→Nov — standard Bayesian forecast variance shrinks as data accumulates and shock-window shortens. Polling-error calibration: FiveThirtyEight, “How Accurate Have Senate Polls Been?” (Jun 2020) & “The Polls Were Historically Accurate in 2022” (Mar 2023). Anchor: Emerson GA Feb 28–Mar 2 2026. Full math + limitations: ga-senate-outcome-model.md. Mandate label: ESTIMATED (derived from sourced anchor + analyst priors).
Narrative Contagion Map — Story Spread Analysis
"Ossoff campaign finance" — origin → national echo
SOURCED
GOP $342M Senate battle plan story · NYT origin Apr 6 2026 · 11 real outlets · CDO backend RSS
Methodology: Live story (re-pulled 2026-05-18 18:11 PDT): "Republicans Saw Georgia as a Top Pickup. Now It's a Mess" — Time Magazine origin 2026-05-18T11:00 ET. Node data sourced from CDO backend /narrative/contagion?topic=Ossoff API (live RSS scraping, 24h window). 11 outlets confirmed coverage, velocity=0.889. Edges = temporal order of pickup. Origin node = Time Magazine (first coverage). Node size = relative reach score. LIVE single-day contagion network for today's dominant Ossoff narrative (replaces the Apr 6 NYT $342M anchor that ran through Sweep L). Real data stored in data/narrative-contagion-2026-05-18.json.

Live Intelligence Engines

Not visualizations of static data. Active AI systems querying live signals, synthesizing answers, and surfacing insights in real time.

Ask the Platform
LIVE
Query
"Why is Georgia the most competitive Senate race right now?"
AI Response
Loading live analysis...
Emotional Resonance
ESTIMATED
4-axis emotional scoring from CDO /sentiment/emotional API — Claude Sonnet analysis of real headlines, past 14 days. GA-SEN live data: Hope 33%, Anger 33%, Pride 33%, Fear 0% (n=4 headlines).
Methodology: Scores from CDO backend /sentiment/emotional?race_id=X&days=14. Headlines sourced from Google News RSS, AP, Reuters feeds. Claude Sonnet classifies each headline's dominant emotion. LIVE re-pull 2026-05-18 18:11 PDT: GA-SEN n=4 (hope 33.3 / anger 33.3 / pride 33.3 / fear 0.0 — unchanged from 2026-04-07; backend's 14-day rolling window hasn't re-classified, but the pull is current); NC-SEN n=2 and TX-SEN n=2 both all-zero (insufficient on-topic headlines for scoring). NC/TX render "awaiting live data" rather than synthetic structural estimates (per Catalyst Data Integrity audit 2026-05-17 Pod 1; prior code carried `fallback = { NC: [10,25,20,15], TX: [18,22,28,12] }` and silently rendered those analyst-fabricated numbers under the AI ANALYSIS badge if the API failed). ESTIMATED AI classification — ±10–15% variance expected. Updated every 6 hours. Real data stored in data/emotional-resonance-2026-05-18.json.
Pollster Quality
ESTIMATED
POLLSCORE-weighted vs. raw — GA-SEN. Raw value SOURCED from Emerson Mar 2026 (A- grade); PollScore/HOI/RV→LV adjustments are ESTIMATED via standard pollster-rating reweighting.
Raw (Emerson Mar 2026)D+3.0
Weighted AverageD+3.4
90-Day Trend↑ +1.3
● Emerson A/B · ● PPP B+ · ● YouGov A · ● Catawba B
4 pollsters · weighted by historical accuracy + recency
LIVE · FEC 2026 cycle · refreshed 2026-05-18
SOURCED · Cook Political 2026-05-14

House Toss-Ups — Live Race Intelligence

Eight Cook-rated Toss-Up districts where the chamber is decided. FEC live; rating SOURCED from Cook Political Report 2026-05-14. Each card surfaces top D and top R challenger by cycle receipts. District-level public polling is sparse HONEST GAP — Cook's race chart linked per card.

AZ-06 · House
Arizona 6 — Tucson Suburbs
TOSS-UP
LIVEFEC → Incumbent Juan Ciscomani (R) re-election · Latino-majority swing district
Mendoza (D) $5.34M
Ciscomani (R, inc) $5.08M
LIVE FEC 2026 cycle (cov thru 2026-03-31): Mendoza $5.34M raised / $3.51M COH; Ciscomani $5.08M / $3.83M COH. D challenger out-raises incumbent. FEC →
SOURCEDToss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · No public general H2H poll Q1 2026 · Tucson suburbs + Cochise County · 33% Latino (ACS 2023)
CA-22 · House
California 22 — Central Valley
TOSS-UP
LIVEFEC → Incumbent David Valadao (R) · Biden +13 / Harris +9 district · Latino-majority
Valadao (R, inc) $4.15M
Villegas (D) $1.33M
LIVE FEC (cov 2026-03-31): Valadao $4.15M / $2.88M COH; Villegas (top D primary) $1.33M / $0.72M COH. FEC →
SOURCEDToss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · No public general H2H poll Q1 2026 · 65% Latino · $40B ag economy · Water politics decisive
IA-03 · House
Iowa 3 — Des Moines + SW
TOSS-UP
LIVEFEC → Incumbent Zach Nunn (R) · Trone Garriott (D) — state senator, Polk County
Nunn (R, inc) $3.88M
Trone Garriott (D) $3.08M
LIVE FEC (cov 2026-03-31): Nunn $3.88M / $3.04M COH; Trone Garriott $3.08M / $2.19M COH. Closest D challenger fundraising of the cycle. FEC →
SOURCEDToss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · No public general H2H poll Q1 2026 · Polk + Warren + Madison Cos · Nunn won 2024 by <1pt
MI-07 · House
Michigan 7 — Lansing + N Suburbs
TOSS-UP
LIVEFEC → Incumbent Tom Barrett (R) · Brink (D) — fmr. Amb. to Ukraine (resigned Apr 2025)
Barrett (R, inc) $5.03M
Brink (D) $2.25M
LIVE FEC (cov 2026-03-31): Barrett $5.03M / $2.82M COH; Brink $2.25M / $1.29M COH. FEC →
SOURCEDToss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · No public general H2H poll Q1 2026 · Mid-Michigan / college towns · DCCC top-tier target
NY-17 · House
New York 17 — Hudson Valley
TOSS-UP
LIVEFEC → Incumbent Mike Lawler (R) · Chatzky (D) — top D primary fundraiser (self-funded)
Chatzky (D) $11.64M
Lawler (R, inc) $6.73M
LIVE FEC (cov 2026-03-31): Chatzky $11.64M / $5.60M COH (self-funded); Lawler $6.73M / $4.24M COH. Largest D House primary war chest in the cycle. FEC →
SOURCEDToss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · No public general H2H poll Q1 2026 · Rockland + Westchester · 9 D primary candidates filed
PA-08 · House
Pennsylvania 8 — NEPA / Scranton
TOSS-UP
LIVEFEC → Incumbent Rob Bresnahan (R) · Cognetti (D) — Scranton mayor, NEPA working-class
Bresnahan (R, inc) $4.52M
Cognetti (D) $3.10M
LIVE FEC (cov 2026-04-29): Bresnahan $4.52M / $2.27M COH; Cognetti $3.10M / $2.25M COH. April-end reports filed. FEC →
SOURCEDToss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · No public general H2H poll Q1 2026 · Luzerne + Lackawanna · D performance is the bellwether
VA-02 · House
Virginia 2 — Hampton Roads
TOSS-UP
LIVEFEC → Incumbent Jen Kiggans (R) · Luria (D) — former Rep (VA-02) seeking rematch
Kiggans (R, inc) $4.75M
Luria (D) $2.87M
LIVE FEC (cov 2026-03-31): Kiggans $4.75M / $3.03M COH; Luria $2.87M / $2.29M COH. Luria is the seat's prior holder (2019–2023). FEC →
SOURCEDToss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · No public general H2H poll Q1 2026 · Virginia Beach + Eastern Shore · Military-heavy electorate
NE-02 · House
Nebraska 2 — Omaha (OPEN)
TOSS-UP
LIVEFEC → Open seat — Don Bacon (R) retiring · NE-02 = 1 of NE's 2 electoral votes (Harris +5 in 2024)
Powell (D — top primary) $1.62M
R field (no clear leader) primary contested
LIVE FEC (cov 2026-04-22): Powell (D-top) $1.62M / $0.32M COH. R primary field still unsorted with Bacon (R-retiring) committee still on file ($1.47M / $0.46M COH). FEC →
SOURCEDToss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · No public general H2H poll Q1 2026 · Omaha + Sarpy + W Pottawattamie · D pickup target (Harris carried CD-02 in 2024)
LIVE + SOURCED Methodology: Fundraising — FEC OpenFEC API v1, candidate-totals endpoint, 2026 cycle, election_full=true; coverage windows shown per card (snapshot fetched 2026-05-18; persisted at data/house-fec-snapshot-2026-05-18.json; refresh path: api.open.fec.gov/developers). Race ratings SOURCEDCook Political Report 2026 House Race Ratings, last updated by Cook 2026-05-14, transcribed to data/cook-house-ratings-2026-05-18.json. Polling honesty: No public district-level general H2H poll was published in Q1 2026 for any of these eight toss-ups (verified against DDHQ polling aggregator, FiveThirtyEight, and Cook's race profiles). The card-level "no public general H2H poll Q1 2026" chip is the honest gap, not a fabrication. SOURCED Phase 9.2.1.h follows the same Catalyst Data Integrity discipline the Senate section follows (audit 2026-05-17 Pod 1).
LIVE · FEC 2026 cycle

Toss-Up Districts — Money Map

Top D vs top R fundraiser in each of the 8 featured Cook Toss-Up districts. Coverage windows are the most recent FEC quarterly filing per candidate (Q1 2026, filed Apr 15; PA-08 and NE-02 carry April 22nd / 29th amendments).

Democratic (top primary)
Republican (incumbent unless OPEN)
LIVE
Source: OpenFEC API (snapshot 2026-05-18) · FEC public filings, House 2026 cycle · Top-1 D primary candidate by receipts vs incumbent R (or top-1 R primary for OPEN seats)
ANALYST positioning · state outlines + district ratings SOURCED

All 435 Districts — Hover Any Competitive Race

Each square = one congressional district, state clusters anchored to each state's projected geographic centroid on a d3.geoAlbersUsa() US projection over us-atlas v3 state outlines. 71 competitive districts (25 Toss-Up + 15 Lean D + 25 Lean R + 4 Likely D + 2 Likely R) pulse cyan. Hover for race intel. Cook geographic map →

Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-Up ✦
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
ANALYST Methodology: District squares are positioned at each state's projected geographic centroid on a d3.geoAlbersUsa() US projection. State outlines are SOURCED from us-atlas v3 states-10m TopoJSON (Apache 2.0, jsdelivr CDN). The CD-cluster positioning at the state centroid is ANALYST/editorial — no public CD-level TopoJSON is reliably available, so squares sit at the state centroid rather than at each CD's actual geographic center. The Northeast Corridor (DE, RI, CT, NJ, NH, VT, MA, MD) uses radial offset + thin leader lines back to each state shape to keep clusters legible where centroids overlap; AK + HI are projected into d3.geoAlbersUsa's standard bottom-left inset positions. Below ~900px viewport width the layout falls back to a compact tile-grid for legibility. District ratings are SOURCED from Cook Political Report 2026-05-14 (transcribed to data/cook-house-ratings-2026-05-18.json; districts not in Cook's competitive lists inherit the default "safe" rating of the incumbent's party — that default is the analyst inference, hence the section-level ANALYST chip). For an authoritative geographic map see Cook or Wikipedia's 2026 House ratings aggregate. Full data-integrity spec: CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md.
SOURCED · seats / parties · ratings transcribed from Cook

The 50% Line — Exactly Which Seats Decide Control

Each chamber rendered as a parliamentary hemicycle with a vertical 50%-control line. Seats sorted Safe-D → Lean-D → Toss-Up → Lean-R → Safe-R, so the toss-up seats cluster around the line by construction — these are the literal seats that flip the chamber. Hover any seat for incumbent, party, 2026 rating.

U.S. Senate · 119th Congress
100 seats · 51 for majority · VP-tiebreaker = R (Vance)
SOURCED
U.S. House of Representatives
435 seats · 218 for majority · 71 competitive races
SOURCED
Safe D
Ind (caucus D)
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-Up ✦
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
SOURCED Methodology: Senate composition (53R / 45D / 2I) and 2026 cycle from Senate.gov + Wikipedia 119th Congress + 2026 Senate elections, ratings from Cook Political Report (transcribed to data/senate-119th-congress-2026.json on 2026-05-18). House seat ratings from Cook Political Report 2026-05-14 (data/cook-house-ratings-2026-05-18.json). ANALYST Non-competitive seats inherit the incumbent's party as "safe" (analyst default; the chamber-arithmetic story turns on the competitive set near the control line). Hemicycle geometry is editorial — angular position has no political meaning; seats are sorted Safe-D → Lean-D → Toss-Up → Lean-R → Safe-R to put the toss-ups visually at the 50% line. Full data-integrity spec: CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md.
HONEST GAP · the data legacy doesn't have

Where The Polling Industry Goes Dark

Of 25 Cook Toss-Up House districts, only a handful have had any public general-election head-to-head poll in Q1 2026. The Senate side gets the headlines; the chamber is decided in the House. Catalyst's value proposition starts here.

25 Toss-Ups · Q1 2026 Polling Coverage ANALYST DDHQ →
No public general H2H · Q1 2026 ~23 / 25 districts
Internal-only polls (DCCC/NRCC, not public) unknown count
Public general H2H · Q1 2026 ANALYST ~2 / 25 districts
Verified against DDHQ aggregator, FiveThirtyEight, and Cook race profiles, Q1 2026 window. The "~2 / 25" reflects sparse coverage like the public NY-17 internals and occasional district releases; the exact count is a moving target — refresh weekly.
ANALYST Coverage estimates derived from Catalyst-side aggregator scans — honest range, not a republished count from a specific source.
⚡ THE OPPORTUNITY
House races are decided in the dark.

ANALYST The legacy polling industry has roughly 8% public polling coverage of toss-up House districts in Q1 2026. The chamber's majority is decided by the 25 districts where public information is thinnest.

Catalyst's pipeline fills exactly this gap: FEC velocity + sentiment + small-donor geography + endorsements across all 71 competitive districts, not just the four toss-up Senate seats that already get nightly tracker coverage.

When the next public NY-17 / IA-03 / VA-02 poll drops, our four-signal model already has eight weeks of trajectory. The poll confirms; it doesn't surprise.

CATALYST POSITION
Become the structured-intelligence layer for the 71 districts the polling industry under-covers. Senate is the demo; House is the moat.
SOURCED demographics · ESTIMATED bloc overlay

CA-22 — Where the Central Valley Decides

California's 22nd is the canonical structural-mismatch district: Biden won it by 13 in 2020, Harris won it by 9 in 2024 — and Valadao (R) has held it through both. 65% Latino electorate, $40B regional agriculture economy, water rights as the dominant cleavage. Pick CA-22 right, you pick the chamber.

D PATH IN CA-22 ANALYST Catalist + ACS →
Drive Latino non-college turnout (60% of electorate) · Hold the high-prop Latino college-grad segment · Frame Valadao's agriculture-water votes specifically — generic D messaging underperforms here
Democratic %
Republican %
Bar width ∝ share of electorate
Demographic shares: Census ACS 2023 5-year for CA-22; vote-share profile: Daily Kos Elections district profiles + presidential toplines (Biden +13 2020, Harris +9 2024). Bloc-level D/R support is ESTIMATED — derived by reweighting the district topline against ACS ethnic + education shares.
SOURCED + ESTIMATED Methodology: Demographics (bar width)Census ACS 2023 5-year tabulations for the 118th Congress CA-22 boundaries: ~65% Hispanic/Latino, 25% non-Hispanic White, ~26% adults with bachelor's degree, 21% rural population (Kern/Tulare/Kings/Fresno portions). Vote toplines — Biden +13 / Harris +9 in CA-22 (118th boundaries) per Daily Kos Elections district profiles. Bloc D/R support is ESTIMATED — derived analytically by reweighting the presidential topline against the ACS bloc shares using Catalist 2024 national bloc deltas; Valadao consistently outperforms the GOP presidential ticket here by ~10–15pts, so individual H2H estimates would land tighter — those would be re-anchored once a public CA-22 general poll lands. No fabricated trajectory.

CA-22 Deep-Dive · How Catalyst Reads a Race

The same chassis the Senate brief uses — applied to the chamber-defining House race. Every number chip-labeled; the brief is opinionated where the data supports it and silent where it doesn't.

LIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · CA-22 2026
California 22 — Central Valley · Valadao (R, inc) vs Villegas (D-top)
Generated: 2026-05-18 · Source: FEC OpenFEC 2026 cycle + Cook 2026-05-14 + ACS 2023 5-year
Confidence
MEDIUM-LOW
No public general H2H poll yet
Top-Line · LIVE FEC (cov 2026-03-31)
Valadao (R, inc) $4.15M raised · $2.88M COH
Villegas (D — top primary) $1.33M · $0.72M COH
LIVE R fundraising +3.1× advantage over top D primary candidate. Toss-up · Cook 2026-05-14 · 4 candidates total · FEC race page →
Demographic Micro-Analysis · CA-22 SOURCED ACS 2023 →
Hispanic/Latino share of CD ~65%
Adults with bachelor's degree SOURCED ~26%
Rural / unincorporated population SOURCED ~21%
No CA-22 H2H crosstab — honest gap
No public general-election Valadao/Villegas (or Valadao/Bains) crosstab has been published in Q1 2026. ACS shares are SOURCED; demographic-level vote shares would require an actual poll fielded on the CD-22 sample frame — which doesn't exist in public yet. Cards above use ESTIMATED reweighting only where labeled.
SOURCED Methodology: Hispanic/Latino share, bachelor's-degree share, rural share — all from Census ACS 2023 5-year tabulations for the 118th Congress CA-22 boundaries. District boundary geometry: post-2022 California Citizens Redistricting Commission map (no mid-decade revision through 2026-05-18).
Key Intelligence Findings ANALYST FEC CA-22 →
⚡ Biden +13 / Harris +9 — yet R-held
Two-cycle structural mismatch. Valadao is one of ~5 House Republicans sitting in a Harris-won district nationwide. Any chamber-flip math runs through these seats first.
⚠ D primary unresolved, fundraising thin
SOURCED Villegas $1.33M cycle is the top D, but the 3.1× R money advantage is the kind of asymmetry that becomes a paid-media deficit by Labor Day. DCCC top-tier or it slips. FEC →
✓ Latino non-college is the entire ballgame
SOURCED ~65% Latino electorate, ~26% bachelor's-degree share — Latino non-college is the median CA-22 voter. The 2024 Latino-male R-shift national pattern was sharpest in Central Valley CDs; that's the bloc that has to be re-attached. ACS →
ACTION
Concede nothing on water — Valadao's vulnerability is specifically his agriculture / water-rights record, not a generic D contrast. Lock D primary by mid-June; start Spanish-language paid in Bakersfield + Visalia markets immediately. Catalyst's signal pipeline (FEC velocity + small-donor geography + Spanish-language sentiment) is the substitute for the public H2H poll that won't arrive until Sept.
PROVENANCE: FEC OpenFEC 2026-05-18 · Cook 2026-05-14 · ACS 2023 5-year · Daily Kos Elections
LIVE SOURCED ESTIMATED

Not a dashboard. An operation.

Fourteen interconnected capabilities, running simultaneously, 24 hours a day. Each one changes the game individually. Together, they change the cycle.

01
24/7 Race Monitoring ANALYST
Every filing, every poll, every shift. Detected and synthesized before your morning meeting. Nothing slips through. DEV_PLAN →
REAL-TIME INTEL
02
Rapid Response in Minutes
When something breaks, response content is in the approval queue before the first cable segment ends. Four hours becomes four minutes.
RAPID RESPONSE
03
Precision Targeting at Voter Scale ANALYST
100,000 individually personalized outreach messages. Each one tuned to the recipient's district, their representative's record, and their giving history. DEV_PLAN →
PRECISION TARGETING
04
Donor Network Cartography
Every political donation on record, mapped. Warm introduction paths to major donors surfaced automatically. No more cold outreach.
NETWORK ANALYSIS
05
Autonomous Optimization
Ad spend reallocated hourly based on performance. No weekly meetings. No wasted budget waiting for human review cycles.
AUTONOMOUS OPT.
06
Cross-Race Intelligence Synthesis
Patterns across all 94 competitive races simultaneously. What's working in Ohio informs the play in Nevada within hours.
SYNTHESIS ENGINE
09
Narrative Contagion Tracking
Track how stories spread from originating outlets to national echo chambers. Know when a damaging narrative is gaining velocity — and intervene before it dominates. Fills the Zignal Labs vacuum.
NARRATIVE INTEL
10
AI Chart Interrogation
Ask the platform anything in plain English. "Why is Georgia the most competitive race?" The system synthesizes all available signals and returns a sourced, actionable answer in seconds.
NL INTERROGATION
11
Uncertainty Modeling ANALYST
POLLSCORE-weighted averages with 95% confidence bands. Know which races are truly decided and which are still volatile — down to the precinct level. Never mistake noise for signal again. DEV_PLAN →
CONFIDENCE BANDS
12
Cross-Signal Synthesis
FEC filings + polling trends + social sentiment + news velocity — unified into a single normalized intelligence stream. Four independent data sources agreeing means you act. One outlier means you investigate.
MULTI-SIGNAL FUSION
13
Dark Money Intelligence
Track $1.9B+ in undisclosed political spending SOURCED across 501(c)(4)s, 527s, shell PACs, state party transfers, and congressional stock trades (OpenSecrets 2024-cycle tally). Sankey flow diagrams trace money from anonymous donors through intermediary vehicles to campaign ads. View Dark Money Tracker →
DARK MONEY TRACKING 7 DATA SOURCES
14
Congressional Stock Correlation
STOCK Act trade data cross-referenced with committee assignments, legislative calendars, and classified briefing access. 147 flagged trades ANALYST with suspicious timing in the current session (Catalyst heuristic from House PTR filings; Phase 8.2 wires /api/v1/stock-act/flags). Donor relationship overlay reveals potential quid pro quo patterns.
STOCK ACT INSIDER TRADING
07
Operational Execution ANALYST
Not a research tool. Not a dashboard. A full-stack operation that detects, decides, creates, and deploys — with human approval at every critical gate. The infrastructure runs 24/7 so your team doesn't have to. DEV_PLAN →
DETECT SYNTHESIZE CREATE APPROVE DEPLOY
08
Compliance Without the Overhead
ESTIMATED FEC compliance that once cost $5,000/month runs automatically. Every threshold monitored. Every report prepared. Every disclaimer checked. Zero missed deadlines. methodology →
REAL-TIME MONITORING AUTO-DRAFTED REPORTS DISCLAIMER AUTOMATION
$55K
SAVED PER CAMPAIGN / YEAR ESTIMATED
vs. traditional compliance counsel — methodology →
Why This Changes the Math ESTIMATED cost-model methodology →
Traditional Compliance
$60K–72K/yr
Blue Wave Compliance
~$5K–7K/yr ESTIMATED
=
Redirected to Winning
$55K+/yr
ESTIMATED That's $55,000+ redirected to voter contact, advertising, and field operations — every year, every campaign. For a Super PAC operating across 10 races, that's $500,000–650,000 in annual savings redeployed into winning. methodology →

Beyond the Headline Number

While every campaign watches the top-line average, we're reading the crosstabs.

The Intelligence Gap No One Talks About

Top-line polling averages tell you the score. They don't tell you why — or what to do about it.

A campaign trailing by 3 points overall may be winning college-educated women by 12. That's not a losing race — it's a resource allocation problem. Blue Wave's micro-analysis engine reads every available crosstab, across every public poll, and surfaces the demographic signal that changes the strategy.

Full crosstab extraction, every poll
Not just the top-line — every demographic split, every geography
Segment movement alerts
Push notification when any demographic shifts >2pts — days before the top-line moves
Daily plain-language brief
For candidates and campaign managers — no data tables, just what matters and what to do
Message-to-segment overlay
Correlate which messages are moving which segments — close the content-to-poll loop
LIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · GA-SEN 2026
Georgia Senate 2026 — Ossoff (D)
Source: Emerson/Nexstar Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026 (n=1,000) · Last refresh: 2026-04-07 SOURCED against that fixed Emerson poll
Confidence
MEDIUM
Top-Line · SOURCED Emerson/Nexstar (n=1,000 · Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026)
Ossoff (D) 47%
Carter (R) — vs. best R matchup 44%
D+3 · MOE ±3.0 · Toss-Up · SOURCED FEC: $76.3M cycle ($12.4M Q1)
Demographic Micro-Analysis
Independent Voters D+16
Women Voters (all) D+8
Voters Under 50 D+12
Race-by-vote crosstab — not in this release GAP
Emerson did not publish an Ossoff/Carter × race crosstab. The same release does publish Trump job-approval crosstabs: Black voters disapprove of Trump −71 (81–10); White voters approve Trump +22 (58–36). A prior version of this card displayed those Trump crosstabs as if they were Ossoff Senate-vote crosstabs — corrected 2026-05-17. See full Emerson release →
SOURCED Methodology: Independents +16, Voters Under 50 +12, Women +8 — all reported by Spencer Kimball (Emerson exec dir) in the Feb 28–Mar 2 2026 Emerson/Nexstar Georgia Senate release (n=1,000 likely voters, MOE ±3%). Race × Ossoff/Carter crosstab not in release — see honest-gap note above. Full crosstabs spreadsheet linked from the Emerson release.
Key Intelligence Findings SOURCED FEC Ossoff →
⚡ Independent lead is structural
Ossoff leads all GOP opponents by avg +16 among independents (Emerson). This is the defining demographic — protecting this lead is mission-critical.
⚠ Sub-50% ceiling risk ANALYST
Ossoff starts just under 50% in all matchups. GA undecideds broke R in 2024. Economy (36%) is top issue — Ossoff needs a compelling economic frame.
✓ Fundraising dominance is decisive SOURCED
$76.3M cycle ($12.4M Q1 2026) — top D Senate war chest. GOP primary rivals (Collins 30%, Carter 16%) still split. GOP runoff uncertainty = Ossoff prep advantage. FEC →
ACTION
Launch economic contrast digital program in Atlanta suburbs + Savannah now, while GOP is still in a May runoff. Ossoff's +D16 independent margin is the moat — build economic credibility with this segment before GOP nominee consolidates. ANALYST Est. +15,000–25,000 net votes in key Cobb/Gwinnett precincts if held — derived from turnout-model spec.
BLUE WAVE INTELLIGENCE ENGINE · BRAINWORKS VENTURES
CONFIDENTIAL
This brief is generated automatically, every day, for every competitive race — in plain language your team can act on.
94 races · Daily automated delivery · Segment movement alerts · Printable PDF for candidate briefings

What Becomes Possible

Six analytical capabilities that didn't exist before. Now they do.

Legacy tools measure the past. These capabilities operate in the future.
Live · All Surfaces
Narrative Mutation Tracking
Watch an attack morph across every surface in real time and intercept it before it reaches cable news.
No human team can monitor all surfaces simultaneously — this system never blinks.
Predictive · 48-72hr Horizon
Opponent Move Prediction
Read filing patterns, ad buys, and content velocity to forecast your opponent's next move 48 hours early.
Counter-program before they punch — not after the news cycle has already framed the story.
Forecast · 2-Week Window
Sentiment Trajectory Modeling
Don't measure where voters are — predict where they're going, 2 weeks before the poll confirms it.
Act on leading indicators, not lagging ones. By the time the poll confirms it, it's already too late to shift.
Early Warning · Hours Not Days
Crisis Early Warning
Detect an emerging attack narrative in Peoria before it's on CNN. The response window is hours, not days.
Standard monitoring watches national media. We watch local TV, AM radio, county papers, and Facebook groups — where stories are born.
Network · Cross-Race Learning
Cross-Race Intelligence Transfer
What's winning with suburban women in Ohio automatically informs the play in Nevada within 48 hours.
Every campaign in history has operated in a silo. CDO operates as a single intelligence network across all races simultaneously.
Velocity · Coalition Health
Coalition Energy Monitoring
Measure enthusiasm before it shows up in turnout numbers. Mobilize before the crisis, not after.
Track engagement velocity in key coalition communities and flag when energy is dropping — weeks before it shows in the vote.
Operations Platform

Campaign Operations — Fully Automated

CDO doesn't just tell you what's happening — it runs the campaign. 12 fully integrated operational modules, each powered by AI, each feeding intelligence back into the unified platform.

ESTIMATED “Replaces:” price ranges below are public vendor list prices & RFP-disclosure aggregates. Per-vendor sourcing in CATALYST_COMPLIANCE_THRESHOLDS.md → Cost-Model.
💰
Fundraising AI
Donor prediction + ask optimization, fully automated
• Donor network cartography + warm intro paths
• AI ask amounts calibrated per donor profile
ESTIMATED Replaces: NGP VAN + ActBlue manual ($15–50K/cycle) methodology →
🗺️
Field Operations
AI-optimized canvassing routes and volunteer deployment
• Prioritized contact lists by persuasion score
• Real-time door knock + phone bank analytics
ESTIMATED Replaces: VAN/MiniVAN + Mobilize ($10–30K/cycle) methodology →
📱
Digital Advertising
AI creative generation + autonomous hourly budget optimization
• Ad spend reallocated hourly by performance signal
• Audience targeting from cross-pillar voter data
ESTIMATED Replaces: Agency retainer ($15–30K/month) methodology →
📰
Earned Media
Press monitoring + rapid response content in minutes
• Response content queued before cable segment ends
• Narrative velocity tracking across 10,000+ outlets
ESTIMATED Replaces: Meltwater + Cision ($12–27K/year) methodology →
🤝
Coalition Management
First purpose-built coalition platform — not Google Sheets
• Endorsement tracking + activation workflows
• Coalition energy monitoring by community segment
Replaces: Google Sheets + manual staff time
🎯
Events
AI-optimized event targeting, scheduling, and follow-up
• Fundraiser guest lists scored by giving propensity
• Automated post-event follow-up and conversion
Replaces: Eventbrite + manual CRM work
🗳️
Voter Registration
Unregistered voter ID + targeted registration drives
• 190M+ voter file cross-matched with registration gaps
• Deadline tracking across all 50 states automated
ESTIMATED Replaces: Catalist + manual outreach ($10–25K/cycle) methodology →
🚀
GOTV Operations
50-state early vote aggregation — first platform to do this
• Real-time early vote return data from all 50 states
• GOTV gaps drive contact prioritization automatically
ESTIMATED Replaces: Manual aggregation + VAN ($5–20K/cycle) methodology →
💬
Message Lab
Continuous message testing + cross-pillar ad creative feed
• Message tests feed ad creative in real time
• Segment-specific message optimization per demographic
ESTIMATED Replaces: Polling firm message testing ($20–80K/cycle) methodology →
🔍
Oppo Research
$50K–500K and weeks → hours and ~$1K
• Full voting record, public statement, donation history
• Continuous monitoring for new vulnerabilities
ESTIMATED Replaces: Research firm ($50–500K/race) methodology →
⚖️
FEC Compliance
Real-time violation detection at moment of donation
• 25% of campaigns file amendments — CDO prevents them
• Every threshold monitored, every report auto-drafted
ESTIMATED Replaces: FECFile + counsel ($10–30K/year) methodology →
📊
Analytics
Unified campaign performance dashboard + predictive ROI
• Every module feeds a unified intelligence stream
• Natural-language interrogation across all data
ESTIMATED Replaces: Catalist + TargetSmart + 538 ($40–120K/cycle) methodology →

Not a bolt-on. A category of one.

CDO is the first AI-native full-stack campaign platform. Every other tool is legacy software with AI features grafted on. Here's what that means in practice.

🔗
Cross-Pillar Intelligence
Fundraising data informs field targeting. Message tests feed ad creative. GOTV gaps drive contact prioritization. No other platform does this — because no other platform runs all 12 functions simultaneously.
🗂️
Coalition Management — Industry First
The industry runs on Google Sheets. Seriously. CDO is the first purpose-built coalition management platform — with endorsement tracking, activation workflows, and energy monitoring built in from day one.
Real-Time FEC Compliance
~25% of campaigns file FEC amendments ANALYST — violations CDO would have caught at the moment of donation. (Catalyst heuristic from FEC bulk Form 3 amendment scan, 2024 cycle; published SQL in Phase 8.2.) Compliance isn't quarterly anymore. CDO monitors continuously, flags instantly, and auto-drafts every required report.
🗺️
50-State GOTV Aggregation
CDO is the first platform to aggregate early vote return data from all 50 states in real time. Every other campaign is running on yesterday's manual aggregation. CDO surfaces gaps before they become deficits.
🔍
Oppo Research: $50K–500K → ~$1K
ESTIMATED Traditional opposition research firms charge $50K–$500K per race and take weeks. CDO's AI research engine delivers the same depth — voting record, public statements, financial history, network mapping — in hours, for a fraction of the cost. methodology →
🧠
Built AI-Native, Not Bolted On
Legacy campaign tech added AI features to existing software. CDO was designed from the ground up as an AI-native system — which means every function learns from every other, improving continuously across every interaction, every day of the cycle.

Replace Your Entire Stack

CDO replaces $200K–800K in legacy point solutions with a single unified platform. Here's what campaigns currently spend — and what they'd redirect to winning.

ESTIMATED Legacy-tool price ranges below are public list prices and vendor RFP-disclosure aggregates (NGP VAN, Catalist, TargetSmart, Meltwater, Cision, Mobilize, FECFile counsel retainers). Methodology + per-vendor source table in CATALYST_COMPLIANCE_THRESHOLDS.md → Cost-Model section. The 85%+ savings figure is an ANALYST comparison vs. a typical Senate/House campaign stack; CDO included-pricing is internal Brainworks pricing.
Function
Legacy Tools
Legacy Cost ESTIMATED methodology →
CDO
Race Intelligence
Catalist + TargetSmart + 538
$40–120K/cycle ESTIMATED
✓ Included
Fundraising
NGP VAN + ActBlue + manual
$15–50K/cycle ESTIMATED
✓ Included
Field Operations
VAN/MiniVAN + Mobilize
$10–30K/cycle ESTIMATED
✓ Included
Digital Advertising
Agency retainer
$15–30K/month ESTIMATED
✓ Included
Earned Media
Meltwater + Cision
$12–27K/year ESTIMATED
✓ Included
Coalition/Endorsements
Google Sheets (seriously)
Staff time only
✓ Included
GOTV Operations
Manual aggregation + VAN
$5–20K/cycle ESTIMATED
✓ Included
FEC Compliance
FECFile + counsel
$10–30K/year ESTIMATED
✓ Included
Oppo Research
Research firm
$50–500K/race ESTIMATED
✓ Included
TOTAL
15–20 tools
$200K–800K/cycle
$200K–800K
Legacy Stack Cost / Cycle ESTIMATED methodology →
85%+
Cost Reduction with CDO ANALYST methodology →

The window is open. The cycle is accelerating.

$10B+
Federal Campaign Spend SOURCED
Projected to flow through federal campaigns in the 2026 cycle. Most of it spent inefficiently. OpenSecrets →
94
Competitive Federal Races
Senate seats Democrats are fighting to hold — plus the House majority within reach.
Q3
Critical Deployment Window
The window to deploy precision intelligence at scale is open now — before the cycle peaks and ad markets lock up.
"Democrats are defending critical Senate seats and fighting to reclaim the House. Every percentage point of efficiency matters. The opposition is spending the same dollars — the question is who converts them into outcomes."
Brainworks Ventures · Political Intelligence Division

Infrastructure for the 2026 cycle.

Brainworks Ventures is building the intelligence infrastructure that the 2026 cycle deserves.

1
Active Now
Intelligence Platform
Continuous monitoring across all competitive federal races. FEC data, polling integration, sentiment tracking, fundraising alerts. Full synthesis engine operational.
2
Q2–Q3 2026
Full Operations
PAC-level execution layer. Rapid response production pipeline. Donor network activation. Precision outreach at voter scale. Autonomous ad optimization.
3
Q4 2026
Campaign Partnerships
Direct campaign integrations. Embedded operations for top-tier Senate and House targets. End-to-end cycle management. Post-election analysis and 2028 foundation.
4
Live Now
Invisible Primary Intelligence
AI-powered 2028 presidential selection intelligence. Real named actor knowledge graph (68 actors). Causal cascade engine. Gate analysis. Donor network mapping.
→ Live Dashboard → Intelligence Report
2028 Presidential Intelligence

The infrastructure for the
next Democratic president.
Built now.

The 2026 cycle is the proving ground. But the platform is designed for what comes next.

📡
Newsom National Profile Monitor
Real-time narrative tracking across every cable, digital, and print surface. Know what the country thinks before the morning call.
🔬
Republican Field Opposition Research
Every statement, every flip, every vulnerability. On every candidate. Updated continuously.
🗺️
270-Map Intelligence ANALYST
Not a static electoral college map. A live model updated with polling, demographics, and enthusiasm signals. DEV_PLAN →
💎
National Donor Network Mapping
Every major Democratic donor, their current commitments, and the warm path to a conversation.
🛡️
Attack Vector Pre-emption
The top 20 attacks any Republican will launch — and the pre-built responses, ready before they're needed.
Day-1 Ready
Built before the announcement. So when the exploratory committee forms, the intelligence operation is already running.

"Most presidential campaigns spend the first 6 months building infrastructure.
This one starts with 18 months of intelligence already in the system."

Social Intelligence
Real-Time Narrative Monitoring
Mention velocity from GDELT 2.0 + community sentiment from Reddit JSON API across r/politics, r/democrats, r/Conservative. Anchor: 2026-05-18 (7-day window). LIVE
News Coverage
7-Day Mention Velocity
LIVE
Methodology: Daily volume index from GDELT 2.0 DOC API mode=timelinevolinfo&timespan=7d per candidate. 166 hourly buckets aggregated to 7 UTC days. Y-axis = % of all global news mentions (GDELT's normalized volume metric, not raw article count). Data file: data/social-intelligence-velocity-daily-2026-05-18.json. Anchor 2026-05-18. LIVE.
Reddit Community
Cross-Subreddit Upvote Ratio
LIVE
Methodology: Reddit JSON API (no auth, read-only). Per candidate × subreddit: search.json?q={name}&sort=top&t=week&limit=25&restrict_sr=1. Bar height = avg upvote_ratio across returned top-of-week posts. Subs: r/politics, r/democrats, r/Conservative. Missing bars = no posts returned in that sub that week (honest gap, not fabricated). Data file: data/social-intelligence-reddit-2026-05-18.json. Anchor 2026-05-18. LIVE.
Candidate Sentiment Profiles
Composite = 0.6 × Reddit avg upvote ratio + 0.4 × GDELT volume share. Anchor 2026-05-18.
ANALYST
Methodology: Composite blends two real signals — Reddit upvote_ratio (LIVE, sub-thread approval among Reddit users) and GDELT 2.0 volume share normalized to peer max (LIVE, share-of-voice in global news). Weights 0.6/0.4 are editorial (ANALYST). Bullets per candidate cite the single source they came from with a clickable link. Candidates with zero Reddit posts in any tracked sub this week render as GAP rather than a fabricated number — "we don't know" beats "made it up." Data file: data/social-intelligence-sentiment-2026-05-18.json. Caveats: Reddit ratio reflects intra-thread Reddit users only, not general electorate; GDELT volume measures mention frequency, not polarity.
Narrative Intelligence Feed
Recent Political Headlines — GDELT 2.0
LIVE
Live Feed
Loading recent headlines…
Methodology: Source: GDELT 2.0 DOC API mode=ArtList&sort=DateDesc&timespan=14d&sourcelang:eng per candidate query (Ossoff, Cooper, Talarico, Booker, Newsom). Each item is one real article: outlet domain + headline + publication date + clickable URL. Filtered to titles containing candidate-or-opponent keyword (on-topic gate). Deduped across syndicating outlets by normalized title. The hand-curated tone-dot (🔴/🟢/⚪ Attack/Positive/Watch) from the prior shipped version was AI-classified fabrication — replaced with a verifiable race chip (GA-SEN/NC-SEN/TX-SEN/NJ-SEN/CA-2028) derived from the candidate this article was returned for. Candidates with no on-topic headlines this week render as GAP rather than fabricated content. Data file: data/narrative-feed-final-2026-05-18.json (raw GDELT response in narrative-feed-2026-05-18.json). Scrape scripts: scripts/scrape_sweep_l.py, scripts/aggregate_sweep_l.py. Anchor 2026-05-18. LIVE. Per Catalyst Data Integrity: "we don't know" beats "made it up."
Data Integrity Footer
Per docs/CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md (internal; available on request — the public mirror cited in prior versions did not resolve and has been removed per audit 2026-05-17 Pod 1): every numeric value on this page carries one of four labels. LIVE = pulled from a live API <24h with clickable source. SOURCED = named static dataset with clickable link. ESTIMATED = analyst-interpolated between sourced endpoints (method spelled out on page). ANALYST = purely analyst-derived; Phase 8.2 roadmap entry exists to replace with measurement.
Hero stats 74 endpoints / 12 functions / 85% cost / 24/7 — ANALYST · 190M+ voters — SOURCED (L2 Political). Methodology card inline.
as of —
Ticker / FEC totals Ossoff / Cooper / Brown / Talarico / Warner Q1 totals — SOURCED (Roll Call, Texas Tribune, Politico, NBC4, FEC bulk).
as of —
Fundraising Battlefield Chart values — SOURCED (FEC Q1 2026, filed Apr 15). Republican comparisons labeled (est.).
as of —
Senate Battlefield Map Per-state ratings — SOURCED (Cook + Sabato composite, accessed 2026-05-02).
as of —
30-Day Polling Movement Momentum deltas — ESTIMATED (two-poll-average margin shift; method on chart). Underlying polls SOURCED.
as of —
Demographic Heatmap (GA) Bloc × electorate share — ESTIMATED (Catalist 2024 + ACS 2023). Topline anchor — SOURCED (Emerson Feb 28–Mar 2 2026).
as of —
Live Intelligence Brief (GA-SEN) Independents +16 / Women +8 / Under-50 +12 — SOURCED (Emerson). Race × vote crosstab — honest gap (not in Emerson release; corrected 2026-05-17).
as of —
Cross-Signal Intelligence (GA) Google Trends, news velocity — SOURCED (pytrends, CDO /narrative/velocity). Fundraising proxy — ESTIMATED. Methodology inline.
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Dark Money · STOCK Act $1.9B total — SOURCED (OpenSecrets). 147 flagged trades — ANALYST (Catalyst heuristic; Phase 8.2 wires /api/v1/stock-act/flags).
as of —
Cost Structure Legacy vendor ranges — SOURCED (NGP VAN, Meltwater, Cision, etc. published rates). CDO pricing — ANALYST (no public Catalyst pricing yet; Phase 8.2).
as of —
Capability claims All forward-product capability prose ("hourly optimization", "10,000+ outlets", "$1K oppo") — ANALYST. Phase 8.2: measured throughput from 3+ pilot deployments.
as of —
Compliance savings ($55K/yr, 25% amendment) Both — ANALYST (Catalyst vendor-compilation + FEC bulk scan). Phase 8.2: replace with measured per-customer savings.
as of —
SOURCED Audit history. Full audit report: docs/AUDITS/2026-05-17-pod1-sellsheet-campaignops.md. The 2026-05-17 audit corrected one wrong-value bug (Ossoff × race crosstab card was displaying Trump approval crosstabs); the corrected card cites the Emerson release directly. The page also dropped a fabricated "94-race pattern library" implied-measurement framing and replaced it with the analyst label.

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BRAINWORKS VENTURES
Political Intelligence Division
alvelda@brainworks.ai
Phillip Alvelda, Managing Partner
brainworks.ai
San Francisco, CA
DATA SOURCES & REFERENCES
Polling & Surveys SOURCED
RealClearPolitics Senate 2026
Senate race poll averages and individual poll tracker
538 / ABC News Polls SOURCED
Individual poll database with pollster grades
Emerson College Polling
GA-SEN: Ossoff +3–8 over GOP field (March 2026)
Race Ratings
Cook Political Report — Senate
Authoritative race ratings: Toss-up / Lean / Likely / Solid
Sabato's Crystal Ball
UVA Center for Politics election forecasts
Campaign Finance
FEC Public Records
Federal Election Commission filings — Q4 2025 / Q1 2026
OpenSecrets 2026 Senate
Compiled fundraising totals and outside spending
ProPublica Campaign Finance API
Programmatic access to FEC filing data
Demographics
Census ACS (American Community Survey)
State-level demographic composition data
MIT Election Data & Science Lab
Historical election results and voting patterns
News & Media SOURCED
Atlanta Journal-Constitution
SLF commits $44M record buy against Ossoff (article publ. 2026-04-07)
Roll Call — Senate Finance
Q4 2025 FEC fundraising analysis (Feb 1, 2026)
Politico SOURCED
Republican super PAC $342M midterm ad buy (article publ. 2026-04-06)
Platform Intelligence
CDO Analytics API
Live competitive index, sentiment, and narrative trending data
Congress.gov
Official legislative records and member data
Methodology
Poll averages use recency-weighted methodology (14-day half-life decay). Race ratings synthesized from Cook Political, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Fundraising from FEC public records Q4 2025/Q1 2026. Competitive index scores from CDO Analytics API backed by live FEC filings. All data sourced from public records; no private polling or internal campaign data used.