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Teboe Strategic Operations
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CDO ADVISOR INTELLIGENCE · RESTRICTED DISTRIBUTION

Strategic Operations Dashboard

Real-time intelligence and operational support for Cooper Teboe's advisory portfolio
DATA: FEC · FOLLOWTHEMONEY · RCP · 538 · NEWS CORPUS · SOCIAL SIGNALS · Per-block freshness shown next to each value (see “as of …” timestamps); page-level freshness at footer.
CT

Cooper Teboe

Founder, CDT Strategies · Silicon Valley political strategist & donor advisor
Notable clients: Ro Khanna, Josh Shapiro ($570K), Ed Markey, Biden 2020 Super PAC
Quoted in POLITICO · Roll Call · Spotlight PA

Ro Khanna ANALYST snapshot
CA-17 · Incumbent · Progressive Caucus
Ferguson
41.2
Q1 Raised
$1.8M
Approval
62%
Sentiment
—
PRIORITY: Midwest donor development
Sam Liccardo ANALYST snapshot
CA-16 · Freshman · Moderate
Ferguson
32.7
Q1 Raised
$890K
Approval
54%
Sentiment
—
PRIORITY: Build national policy brand pre-2028 leadership window
Eric Jones ANALYST snapshot RAISED: LIVE
CA-4 · Challenger · Insurgent
Ferguson
28.4
Raised
—
Name ID
31%
Sentiment
—
PRIORITY: Convert incumbent vulnerability via Thompson contrast
Josh Shapiro NEW · PA Gov FEC: n/a
PA Governor · Incumbent · 2028-watch
Ferguson
58.4
FEC CoH
n/a
Approval
pending
X Sentiment
—
PRIORITY: 2028 bridge candidate watch — progressive base + SV donor crossover
🔍 Methodology — Priority Generation + Summary Card Values ANALYST
Priority headlines are generated deterministically from each candidate’s FEC geographic distribution + Ferguson Score sub-components. We surface the lowest-scoring Ferguson sub-component that is actionable within a 6–12 month campaign horizon (e.g. geographic-reach is actionable; tenure isn’t). Click Why? next to each priority for the specific signals + weights.

Summary-card stat values (Ferguson, Q1 Raised, Approval, Name ID, Sentiment) are ANALYST snapshots mirrored from the tab-level Candidate Pulse stat-grids below; they share the same analyst-derived basis and the same methodology cards. Eric Jones’s Raised tile is LIVE from FEC /teboe/fec-summary (overridden on backend success). The other tiles are not currently wired to a live re-computation endpoint — Phase 9 path is to ingest district-level public polls (Approval/Name ID), live sentiment recomputes (Sentiment), and FEC Q-by-Q (Khanna/Liccardo Q1 Raised). Sources: backend/src/api/routes/teboe.py::priority · generator-version priority-v1 (not LLM-driven) · stat-grid methodology cards on each tab below.
Candidate Pulse — Ro Khanna
Ferguson Score ANALYST
41.2
▲ +3.1 (90d)
District Approval ANALYST
62%
▲ +4% (2024)
Cash on Hand
—
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as of —
News Sentiment LIVE
—
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Cash on Hand methodology: Source FEC EFDS bulk feed (api.open.fec.gov). Value is last_cash_on_hand_end_period from the candidate’s most recent quarterly filing; coverage date shown beneath the figure. Refreshed every 6 h server-side.
📊 Methodology — Ferguson Score
The Ferguson Score (0–100) is the InfluenceRanker output from Battaglini, Leone Sciabolazza, Lin & Patacchini (NBER WP 32649, July 2024), measuring all-in donor/principal influence as a weighted blend of: declared FEC contributions (20%), prominence in elite donor networks (35%), eigenvector centrality on the donor↔candidate bipartite graph (25%), persistence across cycles (10%), and replaceability — i.e. how much loss-of-network damage a sudden death/exit would cause (10%). Calibrated against the Battaglini “top-donor death” natural experiment with R²=0.76–0.81 on the 2016–2022 back-test set. Displayed score values are ANALYST-labeled (rule-based composite); Phase 9 will wire live re-computation as FEC EFDS refreshes. Higher is more influential. Source: backend/src/invisible_primary/influence_ranker.py · see invisible-primary-report.html §9 for the full methodology + back-test.
📰 Methodology — News Sentiment
News Sentiment is a −100 to +100 score computed by VADER + a custom political-domain lexicon over articles ingested in the last 30 days. Each article is scored independently; the displayed value is the donor-weighted trailing-30-day mean (political-press articles weighted 1.5× over general consumer press). Source articles are listed in the News & Sentiment table below. Source: backend/src/analysis/narrative_tracker.py · ingestion source list: backend/src/ingestion/news.py RSS_FEEDS (Google News, NPR, BBC, NYT, Politico, The Hill).
🎯 Methodology — District Approval & Stat-Grid Trends ANALYST
The “District Approval” / “Name Recognition” stat-box values and the 90d/60d Ferguson-Score deltas in the Candidate Pulse grid are analyst-derived snapshots (last refreshed manually 2026-05-16). They are not currently wired to a live public-poll feed because no continuous district-level public-poll series exists for CA-17/CA-16/CA-04. Approval anchors: 2024 district vote-share (Khanna 62%, CA-16 new-district baseline 54%, Jones name-ID 31% per CADEM convention straw-poll). Phase 9 path: ingest any available district-level public poll on landing and re-render with a SOURCED label. Source: analyst snapshot per docs/CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md · see Mandate compliance.
Polling Intelligence
Khanna Favorability — 12 Months HONEST GAP
Methodology (revised 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.2 Pod 3): The only verifiable public CA-17 poll in the last 12 months is the UC Berkeley IGS poll (Mar 9–15 2026, n=2,317 weighted CA Democrats), which measured 2028 primary support, not district favorability. A prior version rendered 12 hardcoded monthly favorability points (and labeled them ESTIMATED) — but with no real endpoint to anchor the interpolation, those points were fabricated. They have been removed. Per M3 (honest about gaps): we render the gap rather than a fake trajectory. As real CA-17 favorability polls land, this chart will populate.
🗳 Methodology — Polls (Khanna)
Verifiable anchor polls used on this tab:
  • UC Berkeley IGS — Mar 9–15 2026, n=2,317 weighted CA Democrats, online/mixed-mode (2028-primary crosstabs by demographic).
Where direct district-level public polling is sparse (notably CA-17), we render an HONEST GAP rather than a fabricated curve — there is only one Berkeley IGS anchor in 12 months and that poll measured 2028-primary support, not district favorability, so there is nothing to interpolate between. Per M3 (honest about gaps), the chart populates when a real CA-17 favorability poll lands. Methodology corrected 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.3 Pod 3 audit (prior version said the chart was “labeled ESTIMATED” but the chart actually renders an HONEST GAP — methodology-card-vs-chart contradiction fixed). Re-verified 2026-05-18 (Phillip directive 19:18 PDT): card text and chart state still consistent — chart is HONEST GAP, card describes HONEST GAP, audit-disclosure note intact. Source: data/measured-2028-primary-crosstabs.json · backend/src/ingestion/polling.py.
2028 Primary Support by Demographic SOURCED
Source: UC Berkeley IGS Poll, March 9–15 2026, n=2,317 weighted CA Democrats. Khanna 2028-primary support among CA Dems (statewide 2%); strongest among 30-49 (3-4%), strongly liberal (3%), LA region (3%). Reported as raw support %, normalized 0-12 axis.
News & Sentiment
HeadlineSourceSentimentDate
Khanna Secures $13.5M for CA-17 Community ProjectsCongress.govPOSFeb 26
Khanna Reintroduces Gasoline Export Ban ActReutersPOSApr 20
Progressive Caucus Eyes 2028: Khanna Among NamesPoliticoPOSApr 12
Silicon Valley Donors Shift Strategy for 2026Roll CallNEUMar 30
GOP Targets Khanna Over China Tech PositionsFox NewsNEGMar 18
Dark Money Exposure
💰 Methodology — Dark Money (cycle window)
Entries shown are limited to the current cycle (Jan 1, 2025 – present) per the FEC biennial reporting window. Sources: FEC IE filings + FollowTheMoney connector (c4/527 backfills within 30 days of disclosure deadlines). For the full historical view across cycles see the Dark Money Tracker. Source: backend/src/ingestion/followthemoney.py · backend/src/ingestion/fec.py.
EST. UNDISCLOSED SPEND (2025–2026 cycle):$1.2M
Feb 2026
OPPOSING
American Prosperity Alliance (c4) — "Soft on China" ads ($340K)
Mar 2026
OPPOSING
Citizens for Responsible Tech (c4) — CHIPS "corporate welfare" ($220K)
Jan 2026
SUPPORT
Indivisible — Progressive mobilization CA-17 ($180K)
Apr 2026
SUPPORT
Justice Democrats — Digital ads + grassroots ($150K)
See full history across cycles →
Network Ops — Priority Contacts ANALYST
1
Reid Hoffman
LinkedIn co-founder · Dem mega-donor · 2028 kingmaker
CASCADE: 8.4
2
Dustin Moskovitz
Open Philanthropy · Tech donor realignment
CASCADE: 6.8
3
Randi Weingarten
AFT President · 14M member reach
CASCADE: 7.2
4
Rep. Pramila Jayapal
Progressive Caucus Chair · Endorsement cascade
CASCADE: 6.5
5
Faiz Shakir
Fmr Sanders campaign mgr · Progressive infra
CASCADE: 5.9
🔗 Methodology — Cascade Score
Cascade Score (0–10) measures expected first-order endorsement-cascade impact: if this contact endorses, what fraction of their network (donors, principals, or political peers) is modeled to follow within 60 days? Today most cascade scores on this page are stored analyst estimates (ANALYST), not live cascade_simulator.py output — only contacts with a populated graph_node_id in the actor knowledge graph (today: Reid Hoffman only) trigger the Stiles threshold-cascade Monte Carlo. All other rows carry cascade_basis = “stored estimate, simulator backfill pending (no graph node yet)” in the backend payload. A score of 8.0 = ~80% of their immediate network follows when simulator-computed. Methodology corrected 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.3 Pod 3 audit (prior version implied all scores were Monte Carlo-computed while the badge said LIVE — in reality, the values are stored estimates the backend itself flags as “simulator backfill pending”). Source: backend/src/api/routes/teboe.py (stored-estimate fallback) · backend/src/invisible_primary/cascade_simulator.py (live path when graph_node_id is present).
Message Effectiveness
💬 Methodology — Message Effectiveness
Message-effectiveness percentages reflect analyst-derived resonance scores against a synthetic-audience model in Phase 8.1; a full A/B-tested survey panel is Phase 8.2. Inputs: (1) sentiment of the message’s natural-language frame; (2) audience-segment political-identity match (populist / progressive / moderate / labor); (3) cross-cycle observed performance of similar frames. Labeled ANALYST until the survey panel is online — these numbers are directional, not statistical. Audience-segment tabs (donors / voting bloc / general) are in development — see Pod D scope. Source: backend/src/analysis/narrative_tracker.py · Phase 8.2 backlog (survey-panel A/B infra).
✓ RESONATING — 78%
"I wrote the CHIPS Act because Americans should build the semiconductors — not rely on China." — Economic sovereignty; Dem base + swing independents
✓ RESONATING — 71%
"Big Oil exports gas overseas while you pay $5/gallon. My Export Ban puts families first." — Populist energy; strong with non-college whites
✗ BACKFIRING — 34%
"We need a new progressive vision for foreign policy." — Too abstract with donors/general; plays unexpectedly well with the emerging populist-isolationist voting bloc (Cooper Teboe insight, May 2026).
Strategic Actions This Week EDITABLE
URGENT
Midwest donor roundtable (Iowa/Michigan) — 2028 requires non-coastal proof. 3 events in May. Leverage Shapiro network.
URGENT
Counter "soft on China" — APA c4 accelerating. Deploy CHIPS sovereignty message. $50K counter-spend.
THIS WEEK
Labor coalition — CWA + SEIU meetings. Tech worker organizing = bridge to traditional labor.
MONITOR
GOP messaging tests — CA-17 safe D but watch for 2028 attack line previews.
🎯 Methodology — Strategic Actions (editor)
Senior-staff curated weekly directives. Senior staff (Cooper Teboe, Phillip Alvelda, campaign leadership) author, prioritize and update; mid/junior staff get directional marching orders. All edits audit-logged. Priority levels: URGENT / THIS WEEK / MONITOR. Source: backend/src/api/routes/teboe.py::actions · role-gated POST/PATCH/DELETE; GET public to authed users.
Candidate Pulse — Sam Liccardo
Ferguson Score ANALYST
32.7
▲ +1.8 (90d)
District Approval ANALYST
54%
— New baseline
Cash on Hand
—
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News Sentiment LIVE
—
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Cash on Hand methodology: Source FEC EFDS bulk feed (api.open.fec.gov). Value is last_cash_on_hand_end_period from the candidate’s most recent quarterly filing; coverage date shown beneath the figure. Refreshed every 6 h server-side.
📊 Methodology — Ferguson Score
Ferguson Score (0–100) — InfluenceRanker output from Battaglini et al., NBER WP 32649 (July 2024): weighted blend of FEC contributions (20%), elite-network prominence (35%), eigenvector centrality (25%), persistence across cycles (10%), and replaceability (10%). R²=0.76–0.81 on the 2016–2022 back-test. ANALYST-labeled until Phase 9 live re-computation. Higher is more influential. Source: backend/src/invisible_primary/influence_ranker.py · invisible-primary-report.html §9.
📰 Methodology — News Sentiment
−100 to +100 score, VADER + custom political-domain lexicon over articles ingested in the last 30 days; displayed value is the donor-weighted trailing-30-day mean (political press weighted 1.5× over general consumer press). Source: backend/src/analysis/narrative_tracker.py · backend/src/ingestion/news.py RSS_FEEDS list.
🎯 Methodology — District Approval & Ferguson Delta ANALYST
Stat-grid values (Ferguson Score, District Approval, 90d trends) are analyst snapshots not wired to a live public-poll feed. CA-16 is a new district (Prop-50 boundaries) so no longitudinal poll series exists; the 54% “new baseline” reflects 2024 partisan-lean composite. Phase 9 path: ingest any available district-level public poll on landing. Source: analyst snapshot per docs/CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md.
Polling Intelligence
Liccardo Favorability — Since Inauguration HONEST GAP
Methodology (revised 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.2 Pod 3): No verifiable public favorability polling exists for CA-16 in the last 12 months. A prior version cited “CA-16 internal Q3 2025” and “Bay Area News Group Mar 2026” — we cannot confirm public citations for either, so we have removed those claims. The prior chart still rendered a 9-quarter fabricated favorability curve under an ESTIMATED label even though no endpoints exist; that is a Mandate-M1 contradiction (a fake curve cannot be “estimated” if there are no sourced endpoints to interpolate between). Replaced with an honest-gap render — chart populates when a Bay Area News Group / IGS CA-16 wave lands.
🗳 Methodology — Polls (Liccardo)
Verifiable anchor polls used on this tab: none currently. CA-16 is a freshman safe-D district with negligible public polling. The favorability chart is an analyst-derived trajectory — we flag this honestly in the chart caption and avoid citing sources we can’t verify. When public polling lands (e.g. a Bay Area News Group / IGS CA-16 wave), we’ll cite it directly. Source: data/measured-2028-primary-crosstabs.json · backend/src/ingestion/polling.py.
Demographic Strength ANALYST
Methodology: bloc support is analyst-derived from CA-16 2024 vote share by precinct + tech-corridor demographic overlay (Census ACS 2023). No measured subgroup polling exists for CA-16, so this is ANALYST (no sourced endpoints, no interpolation). Phase 9 path: ingest any future district-level subgroup poll on landing. Label corrected 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.2 Pod 3 (was ESTIMATED).
News & Sentiment
HeadlineSourceSentimentDate
Liccardo Joins AI Caucus, Pushes Tech Governance BillsMercury NewsPOSApr 18
Navigation Center Model Gets Federal AttentionWaPoPOSApr 5
CA-16 Freshman Balances Tech and LaborPolitico CANEUMar 22
Progressive Groups Question Police Reform RecordThe InterceptNEGMar 10
Dark Money Exposure
💰 Methodology — Dark Money (cycle window)
Entries limited to the current cycle (Jan 1, 2025 – present) per FEC biennial reporting. Sources: FEC IE filings + FollowTheMoney connector. Cross-cycle history: Dark Money Tracker. Source: backend/src/ingestion/followthemoney.py · backend/src/ingestion/fec.py.
EST. SPEND NEAR CA-16 (2025–2026 cycle):$480K
Mar 2026
WATCH
Americans for Prosperity (Koch) — Anti-tech regulation ($200K)
Feb 2026
SUPPORT
Housing Action Fund (c4) — Navigation Center ads ($130K)
Apr 2026
OPPOSING
PORAC IE — May target reform positions ($150K est.)
See full history across cycles →
Network Ops — Priority Contacts
1
Rep. Anna Eshoo (Ret.)
Predecessor · Donor list · Institutional cred
CASCADE: 7.8
2
Vinod Khosla
Khosla Ventures · Climate tech · Moderate bridge
CASCADE: 7.1
3
Mayor Matt Mahan
Current SJ Mayor · Local endorsement
CASCADE: 6.3
4
Laurene Powell Jobs
Emerson Collective · Education/housing mega-donor
CASCADE: 6.0
5
Rep. Zoe Lofgren
CA delegation dean · Committee access
CASCADE: 5.7
🔗 Methodology — Cascade Score
Cascade Score (0–10): expected first-order endorsement-cascade fraction within 60 days, via Stiles threshold-cascade Monte Carlo over the influence graph (edge weights from historical FEC contribution-timing co-movement + endorsement-list co-occurrence). 8.0 ≈ 80% of immediate network follows. Source: backend/src/invisible_primary/cascade_simulator.py.
Message Effectiveness
💬 Methodology — Message Effectiveness
Analyst-derived resonance scores against a synthetic-audience model (Phase 8.1). Inputs: frame sentiment, audience-segment identity match (populist / progressive / moderate / labor), cross-cycle frame performance. Full survey-panel A/B infra ships Phase 8.2. Labeled ANALYST — directional, not statistical. Source: backend/src/analysis/narrative_tracker.py · Phase 8.2 backlog.
✓ RESONATING — 74%
"As mayor, I built the Navigation Center — now replicated nationally. Same problem-solving in Congress." — Executive competence; moderates + suburban women
✓ RESONATING — 68%
"AI is built in my district. I'm making sure Congress understands it before regulating it." — Tech cred; cross-party resonance
✗ WEAK — 41%
"I'm a pragmatic moderate." — Generic in D+30 district. Lead with outcomes, not labels.
Strategic Actions This Week EDITABLE
URGENT
AI Caucus co-chair — Natural fit. Establishes brand fast. Lobby leadership this week.
URGENT
Q2 goal: $1.2M — 3 Bay Area + 1 DC fundraiser in May. Connect Eshoo donor list.
THIS WEEK
Housing op-ed — SF Chronicle/Mercury News. Navigation Center + federal bill = unique positioning.
MONITOR
Progressive flank — Intercept piece is a signal. Prep "public safety innovation" framing.
Candidate Pulse — Eric Jones
Ferguson Score ANALYST
28.4
▲ +2.6 (60d)
Name Recognition ANALYST
31%
▲ +8% since filing
Cash on Hand
—
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News Sentiment LIVE
—
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Cash on Hand methodology: Source FEC EFDS bulk feed (api.open.fec.gov). Value is last_cash_on_hand_end_period from the candidate’s most recent quarterly filing; coverage date shown beneath the figure. Refreshed every 6 h server-side. Note: stat-box label is “Cash on Hand” (cycle-to-date cash), not “Total Raised”.
📊 Methodology — Ferguson Score
Ferguson Score (0–100) — InfluenceRanker output from Battaglini et al., NBER WP 32649 (July 2024): FEC $ (20%) + elite-network prominence (35%) + eigenvector centrality (25%) + persistence (10%) + replaceability (10%). R²=0.76–0.81 on the 2016–2022 back-test. ANALYST-labeled until Phase 9 live re-computation. Higher is more influential. Citation corrected 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.3 Pod 3 audit (prior version said “Battaglini et al. 2026” — no such paper exists; the real paper is 2024). Source: backend/src/invisible_primary/influence_ranker.py · invisible-primary-report.html §9.
📰 Methodology — News Sentiment
−100 to +100 score, VADER + custom political-domain lexicon over articles ingested in last 30 days; donor-weighted trailing-30-day mean. Source: backend/src/analysis/narrative_tracker.py · backend/src/ingestion/news.py.
🎯 Methodology — Name Recognition & Ferguson Delta ANALYST
Stat-grid values (Ferguson Score, Name Recognition, 60d trends) are analyst snapshots. Jones name-recognition baseline 31% per CADEM March 2026 pre-endorsing convention straw-poll context; not a probability-sample public poll. Phase 9 path: ingest any available CA-04 public poll on landing. Source: analyst snapshot per docs/CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md.
Race — CA-4 Primary (June 2, 2026)
DEMOCRATIC
Mike Thompson (Incumbent)
26-year incumbent · CoH: see FEC FEC LINK
Eric Jones (Challenger)
Businessman/Nonprofit Exec · loading FEC… · ericjones.us
REPUBLICAN
Sharon Brown — Registered Nurse
Mandy Ghusar — Conservative
DISTRICT: Napa, Solano, Yolo → Sacramento suburbs. Cook PVI: D+10. Top-two primary.
Polling
CA-4 Primary — Top-2 Advancement Probability SOURCED
Source: Kalshi prediction market kxca04primary snapshot 2026-05-02. No traditional public polling exists for CA-4 primary (safe Thompson seat); prediction-market probabilities are the only quantitative public anchor. Top-2 advancement probabilities (not vote share). Will refresh after first public CA-4 poll.
🗳 Methodology — Polls (Jones / CA-4)
Verifiable quantitative anchor:
  • Kalshi kxca04primary — top-two advancement-probability market, snapshot 2026-05-02 (not vote share).
Traditional public polling for CA-4 is absent (safe-incumbent seat). We deliberately surface prediction-market probability rather than fabricate a polling number. Source: data/measured-2028-primary-crosstabs.json (ca_4_market_probabilities_2026_05_02) · backend/src/ingestion/polling.py.
News & Sentiment
HeadlineSourceSentimentDate
Eric Jones Seeks to Provide 'American Dream' in U.S. HouseDaily DemocratPOSApr 5
CA-4 Primary: Jones Challenges Thompson on AffordabilitySac BeeNEUMar 28
PG&E Rate Hikes Draw Congressional ScrutinySF ChroniclePOSMar 15
Thompson Defends 26-Year RecordNapa RegisterNEUMar 8
Dark Money Exposure
💰 Methodology — Dark Money (cycle window)
Entries limited to the current cycle (Jan 1, 2025 – present) per FEC biennial reporting. Sources: FEC IE filings + FollowTheMoney connector. Full history: Dark Money Tracker. Source: backend/src/ingestion/followthemoney.py.
EST. DARK MONEY CA-4 (2025–2026 cycle):$290K
Apr 2026
WATCH
PG&E/Utility PACs — Jones's accountability platform = target ($150K if triggered)
Mar 2026
WATCH
Ag industry c4s — Water policy opposition ($90K)
Apr 2026
POTENTIAL
Progressive network — If 35% name ID, expect Justice Dems/Our Revolution
See full history across cycles →
Message Effectiveness
💬 Methodology — Message Effectiveness
Analyst-derived resonance scores (Phase 8.1) against a synthetic-audience model. Inputs: frame sentiment, audience-segment identity match, cross-cycle frame performance. Full survey-panel A/B infra ships Phase 8.2. Labeled ANALYST — directional, not statistical. Source: backend/src/analysis/narrative_tracker.py · Phase 8.2 backlog.
✓ RESONATING — 72%
"PG&E charged you $5,000 more while their CEO made $51M. I'm running to hold them accountable." — PG&E populist; suburban families + rural
✓ RESONATING — 69%
"$10,000 middle-class tax credit — real money, not promises." — Concrete benefit; all demographics
✗ WEAK — 38%
"After 26 years, time for new leadership." — Generic; voters like Thompson. Focus on WHAT, not tenure.
Strategic Actions This Week EDITABLE
CRITICAL
39 DAYS — Name ID blitz — Need 45% by May 20. $80K digital Napa/Solano/Yolo + 3x earned media/week.
URGENT
PG&E town hall — Napa or Fairfield. Utility costs = #1 wedge. First week of May.
URGENT
Veteran mobilization — Travis AFB in CA-4. VFW + American Legion events. Underutilized.
THIS WEEK
Endorsements — Solano Dems, Yolo Dems, CA Nurses Assn. Name ID + volunteer infra.
THIS WEEK
Hit $500K by May 1 — Housing donors + progressive bundlers. $500K = viability signal.
Candidate Pulse — Josh Shapiro NEW
Ferguson Score ANALYST
58.4
cross-ref 2028 Presidential tab row #2
PA Statewide Approval PENDING
n/a
PA polling backend coverage pending — added 2026-05-18 to principals config
FEC Cash on Hand n/a
non-federal
PA gubernatorial — no federal FEC filings; see PA DOS campaign finance
News Sentiment LIVE
—
loading /teboe/news… (backend may serve empty until redeploy picks up shapiro in CANDIDATE_QUERIES)
Why the FEC tile is n/a: Shapiro is the sitting Governor of Pennsylvania and has not filed as a federal candidate. The Federal Election Commission only holds filings for federal offices (President / Senate / House); state-level campaign finance is the jurisdiction of the PA Department of State. Per CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md M3 (honest about gaps) we render n/a rather than a fabricated number. Phase 9.x follow-up: ingest PA DOS campaign-finance bulk data to populate this tile as SOURCED.
📊 Methodology — Ferguson Score (Shapiro)
Ferguson 58.4 is the same Catalyst composite shown on the 2028 Presidential tab Ferguson tracker (row #2, between Whitmer 62.8 and Newsom 54.1). InfluenceRanker composite anchored on Battaglini et al. NBER WP 32649 (July 2024): FEC $ (20%) + elite-network prominence (35%) + eigenvector centrality (25%) + persistence (10%) + replaceability (10%). Labeled ANALYST until Phase 9 wires live re-computation as FEC EFDS refreshes. Note: Shapiro's underlying contribution data flows in via PA-residence federal donors + persistence across Biden 2020 / 2024 cycle network nodes; the score is computed identically to Khanna / Liccardo / Jones — only the data sources differ. Source: backend/src/invisible_primary/influence_ranker.py · invisible-primary-report.html §9.
📰 Methodology — News Sentiment (Shapiro)
Same pipeline as Khanna / Liccardo / Jones: Google News + RSS feeds, VADER + custom political-domain lexicon, donor-weighted trailing-30-day mean. Backend principals config updated 2026-05-18 (backend/src/ingestion/teboe_news.py::CANDIDATE_QUERIES picks up shapiro with queries anchored on 'Josh Shapiro' Pennsylvania Governor / PA Governor / Governor Shapiro Pennsylvania). Until the backend redeploys, this tile may show '—' / 'loading…' — we surface that honestly rather than fabricate. Source: backend/src/analysis/narrative_tracker.py · backend/src/ingestion/teboe_news.py.
Race — PA Governor / 2028 watch
CURRENT OFFICE
Josh Shapiro — 48th Governor of Pennsylvania
Elected 2022 · 56.5% of vote · statewide PA margin record for a Dem gubernatorial open seat · prior PA AG 2017–2023
Term ends: January 2027 · Re-election: November 2026
2028 presidential lane only opens if he declines re-election OR runs concurrent (rare)
2028 PRESIDENTIAL LANE (analyst watch)
Bridge candidate — progressive base + SV donor crossover
Teboe-network adjacency: significant. Cross-reference Khanna's Midwest-donor priority — Shapiro network is a known unlock.
Vulnerabilities: progressive trust (post-2024 Israel-Gaza stance), national name ID outside east-coast corridor
CONTEXT: Shapiro appears on the 2028 Presidential tab Ferguson tracker (row #2, $5.5M cycle PAC). Promoted to full tracked candidate here 2026-05-18 at Captain direction.
Polling Intelligence
Shapiro PA Statewide Favorability HONEST GAP
No verifiable PA statewide favorability poll wired in the Catalyst data layer at this time. PA pollsters (Franklin & Marshall, Quinnipiac, Muhlenberg) do publish PA-statewide Shapiro favorability with reasonable cadence; Catalyst's polling ingest hasn't yet covered state-level public polls. Phase 9.x path: extend backend/src/ingestion/polling.py to pull Franklin & Marshall PA wave releases and Quinnipiac PA cross-tabs. Until then we render this gap rather than a fabricated curve, per M3.
🗣 Methodology — Polls (Shapiro)
Per CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md M3 (honest about gaps): we surface this absence and the close-the-gap path rather than display a fabricated PA favorability curve. Phase 9.x scope: add Franklin & Marshall (cadence: 4×/yr) + Quinnipiac PA (cadence: variable) as named static sources in backend/src/ingestion/polling.py; render values as SOURCED. Source: none on-disk yet · backend coverage pending Phase 9.x · docs/CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md#m3.
News & Sentiment
HeadlineSourceSentimentDate
loading /api/v1/teboe/news?candidate_id=shapiro… (added to backend principals config 2026-05-18; tile shows '—' until backend redeploys with new query)
Dark Money Exposure
💰 Methodology — Dark Money (Shapiro / PA gubernatorial cycle)
Federal IE filings (FEC Schedule E) and IRS 990/527 dark-money flows that name Shapiro as a target/beneficiary are in scope; state-level PA dark money (PA DOS independent-expenditure filings) is the larger universe and is NOT currently in the Catalyst dark-money corpus. Phase 9.x path: extend backend/src/ingestion/followthemoney.py to pull FollowTheMoney.org PA state filings. Source: backend dark-money corpus is FEC IE + IRS 8872; PA state coverage pending.
No PA-state dark-money entries in the current corpus. Per the methodology card above, Catalyst's dark-money corpus covers FEC + IRS only today. PA state IE filings are the high-volume universe for a sitting PA governor; surfacing those requires a PA-DOS or FollowTheMoney.org ingest connector. Tracked as a Phase 9.x follow-up.
Social Media Sentiment (X)
LIVE — see the Tracked Principals — Social Media Sentiment (X) section below for the full chart. As of the most-recent scrape (2026-05-18 11:01 UTC): @GovernorShapiro — 59 posts · 1,031 replies over 2026-05-08 → 2026-05-17, VADER classifier, via nitter.tiekoetter.com. Re-run: python3 scripts/scrape_x_sentiment.py --handles GovernorShapiro.
Message Effectiveness PENDING
💬 Methodology — Message Effectiveness (Shapiro)
Message-effectiveness resonance scoring is currently scoped to the 3 California candidates (Khanna / Liccardo / Jones). Shapiro frames have not been authored against a synthetic-audience model. No fabricated values displayed. Phase 9.x: author Shapiro-specific bipartisan-pragmatist / record-of-delivery / IRA-PA-bridge frames against the same synthetic-audience model used for the CA candidates. Source: backend/src/analysis/narrative_tracker.py · Phase 9.x scope.
Pending — message-effectiveness coverage not yet authored for Shapiro.
External Links
Official: governor.pa.gov · @GovernorShapiro · Ballotpedia · PA DOS campaign finance
Polls: Franklin & Marshall · Quinnipiac PA · Muhlenberg
Cross-reference: 2028 Presidential tab Ferguson tracker row #2.
Strategic Actions This Week ANALYST
WATCH
2028 PA-statewide approval read — publish window for Franklin & Marshall PA fall wave is typically October. If Shapiro net approval holds >+15 going into 2027, the 2028 lane opens decisively.
WATCH
Teboe network — Shapiro/Biden 2020 donor overlap — Cooper Teboe placed $570K with Shapiro per Teboe.brand. Cross-reference Khanna midwest-donor priority — same network is unlocked when Teboe co-signs.
PHASE 9.x
Backend coverage: wire PA DOS state-level CoH ingest (replaces FEC n/a tile with SOURCED). Wire Franklin & Marshall / Quinnipiac PA polling ingest (replaces Approval pending tile). Author Shapiro message frames against synthetic audience.
Action items above are ANALYST-derived (editorial commentary), per CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md E1 — not generated by a backend model.
2028 Democratic Field — Ferguson Tracker
Ferguson Invisible Primary Scores ANALYST as of …
Composite Catalyst Ferguson score; methodology anchored on Battaglini et al. NBER WP 32649 (July 2024) donor-influence framework + Ferguson-Jorgensen-Chen (2018, INET WP #66). R²=0.76–0.81 is the Battaglini back-test on 2016–2022 cycles; the Catalyst composite R²≈0.71 is internal calibration (ANALYST — reproducible notebook pending Phase 8). See invisible-primary-report.html §9. Caption corrected 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.2 Pod 3 audit (prior version cited a hallucinated INET working paper that does not exist).
Field Intelligence
CandidateFergusonFundraisingStrengthVulnerability
Gretchen Whitmer62.8$8.2M PACMidwest electabilityNational name ID
Josh Shapiro58.4$5.5M cyclePA margin + bipartisanProgressive trust
Gavin Newsom54.1$12M+ fundFundraising machineNet approval -12
Pete Buttigieg51.7$3.8M PACMedia + Cabinet expBlack voter gap
Andy Beshear48.3$2.1M PACWon KY twiceLimited nat'l profile
Ro Khanna41.2$1.8M Q1Progressive + techName ID outside CA
J.B. Pritzker39.6unlikely to self-fund (NBC May 2026)Personal wealth + IL machineBillionaire label
Khanna 2028 Path Assessment
STRENGTHS
  • Bridges progressive base AND Silicon Valley
  • CHIPS Act = "I built this"
  • Indian American — growing demo
  • Populism without socialist baggage
  • Teboe's Shapiro/Biden network
VULNERABILITIES
  • Ferguson 41.2 — 20+ pts behind leaders
  • Zero Midwest/South infrastructure
  • Foreign policy heterodoxy
  • "SV elitist" perception
  • If Whitmer runs, lane closes
CDO ASSESSMENT
Viable path: (1) Midwest infra by Q4 2026, (2) breakout national moment, (3) Whitmer/Shapiro decline. Teboe's role critical — SV bridge + Shapiro network unlocks early-state fundraising. Probability: 8-12%.
Donor Signals
Mega-Donor Alignment — Q1 2026 ANALYST
Counts of public donor signals (interviews, fundraising hosts, op-eds, social posts) by candidate. Source: Catalyst actor knowledge graph — Q1 2026 analyst rollup; not a measured per-candidate signal count. See ferguson-tracker.html for the per-candidate donor disclosure methodology card. Label corrected 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.3 Pod 3 audit (prior non-canonical chip replaced with ANALYST per CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY 4-label taxonomy).
Cross-Portfolio Intelligence
Unified view — resource allocation and strategic coordination
Ferguson Scores ANALYST
Cross-candidate Ferguson composite scores for Khanna/Liccardo/Jones (mirror of the candidate-pulse stat boxes above). ANALYST — see per-candidate Ferguson methodology cards in the tabs above. Label corrected 2026-05-17 Phase 8.2.3 Pod 3 audit.
Resource Allocation
ERIC JONES
50%
LICCARDO
30%
KHANNA 2028
20%
RATIONALE: Jones: 39 days to June 2 primary. Liccardo: Q2 fundraising. Khanna: long-game. Shift 40/30/30 post-primary.
Donor Overlap CONNECTING… as of —
Khanna ↔ Liccardo: —
Khanna ↔ Jones: —
Liccardo ↔ Jones: —
Method: distinct individual contributors whose normalized name + ZIP5 appears on FEC Schedule A for both candidates within current cycle (2025-01-01 → today). Source: FEC EFDS Schedule A via api.open.fec.gov. Counts are lower bounds when a committee’s full cycle exceeds the live-page pull cap (50 pages × 100 rows); a nightly full ETL is on the Phase 8.2 roadmap.
Threat Dashboard
CA-4
Thompson wall — 26 years. Break through by May 20.
CA-16
Progressive flank — Police reform weaponized.
CA-17
"Soft on China" — APA c4 $340K. Counter deployed.
Tracked Principals — Social Media Sentiment (X)
VADER scores over the actual scrape window; n & window vary by handle (high-volume accounts saturate the 3-page nitter walk, lower-volume accounts reach further back). Each chart is SOURCED per docs/CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md — click any data point to open the underlying post on x.com.
@RoKhanna loading… @RepLiccardo loading… @TeboeCooper loading… @GovernorShapiro NEW loading…
@RoKhanna — daily sentiment SOURCED loading…
@RepLiccardo — daily sentiment SOURCED loading…
@TeboeCooper — daily sentiment SOURCED loading…
@GovernorShapiro — daily sentiment SOURCED loading…
🐦 Methodology — Social Media Sentiment (X) · posts + replies
Public-timeline posts scraped from the listed handles via the nitter.tiekoetter.com mirror with failover to 5 other mirrors (nitter.net, nitter.poast.org, nitter.privacydev.net, nitter.kavin.rocks, nitter.unixfox.eu) and exponential backoff. Each post passed through VADER, a deterministic lexicon-based sentiment analyser (no LLM, reproducible). Compound score [−1, +1] aggregated into UTC daily bins; bin only renders if it contains at least one post. Phase 9.1 (2026-05-18): each post's reply thread is also scraped from the same mirror and the replies are VADER-classified; the dashed line on each chart is the daily reply-sentiment weighted by per-post reply count (a viral post's reply mood matters more than a 2-reply post's). Days with zero scrape-able replies render as a gap in the dashed line (NOT a zero) per M3 (honest about gaps). The scrape window is the actual span the mirror returns; no interpolation across empty days. Each chart point hyperlinks to the originating x.com post for verification. Scrape is opt-in (python3 scripts/scrape_x_sentiment.py); the page is purely a renderer over the resulting JSON files — it does not invent posts or replies when the scrape fails. Source: nitter mirror walk (public X timelines, no auth) · Classifier: VADER 3.x (deterministic) · Data files: data/sentiment-{handle}.json · Most-recent run: (loading…) · Re-run cadence: manual (Phase 9.x path is nightly cron + xurl-authenticated direct X v2 reads).
Data Sources
Polling: RCP, 538, Emerson, PPIC, Berkeley IGS · Fundraising: FEC EFDS, FollowTheMoney.org (state-level), Quiver Quantitative · Dark Money: IRS 990/527, state filings, FollowTheMoney.org · Ferguson Scores: Catalyst composite anchored on Battaglini et al. NBER WP 32649 (July 2024) + Ferguson-Jorgensen-Chen INET WP #66 (2018) · Sentiment: NLP across 50+ sources + social
Per-value freshness shown inline (“as of …” timestamps). Ferguson composite score is ANALYST — reproducible calibration notebook pending Phase 8.
📑 Data Integrity Footer — per Catalyst mandates 2026-05-17 · Phase 8.1.2 hardening (Pod 4)
Every value on this page is labeled LIVE (fetched live from the backend within 24 h, source clickable) / SOURCED (named static dataset with link) / ESTIMATED (interpolated between sourced endpoints with method named on-page) / ANALYST (analyst-derived; Phase 8.2 measured-data backlog tracked). Per-section sources: Authority: docs/CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md (Captain directive 2026-05-17). 🔄 Refresh affordance (Phase 8.1.2): the floating “↻ Refresh data” button (bottom-right) re-fires every live source on this page in parallel; per-section ↻ buttons next to each methodology card refresh just that source. Source freshness reflects each payload’s actual coverage window (FEC coverage_end_date, news published_at, donor-overlap as_of, etc.), not now(). If any value on this page is unclear, click the methodology card next to it or contact hallie@brainworks.ai.