★ CATALYST DEMOCRACY OPS — DARK MONEY INTELLIGENCE — NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION ★
⚠️ DATA INTEGRITY — READ BEFORE QUOTING ANY FIGURE FROM THIS PAGE · 🔄 Refresh: bottom-right "Refresh data" button + per-section ↻

Per CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md (Pod 4 audit, 2026-05-17), every numeric value on this page falls into one of four labels:

Watchlist: The c4 political-spend column in the org tables ("Est. Political Spend") is the highest-priority round-trip target — these are the figures most likely to be quoted externally and most likely to drift from current public filings. Phase 8 deliverable: replace static c4 tables with live ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer IRS 990 cross-reference per org. Conservative behavior until then: do not export these tables as standalone data; quote with the ESTIMATED label inline.

📜 PROVENANCE · Every $-figure on this page is labeled LIVE / SOURCED / ESTIMATED / ANALYST / GAP with a clickable source-of-record link. Aggregate $1.9B figure → Brennan Center 2024 report. Org-level figures → FEC committee filings (super PACs) / ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer (501c4s) / IRS Political Org File (527s). Race-level → FEC IE rollup filtered by recipient state. Stock-trade flagging → CapitolTrades + Senate/House EFD. Snapshot date: FEC final 2024-12-31 + Q1 2025 amendments where applicable. Last updated: 2026-05-17. Per CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md §E1-E4.
Total Dark Money (2024 Cycle) SOURCED
$1.9B
↑ ~90% vs 2020 ($1.0B prior record per OpenSecrets 2020) — Brennan Center 2024 · as of 2025-01-15 · Sweep I correction 2026-05-17: 2020 baseline was $1.34B (wrong); per Brennan Center linked source, 2020 prior record was $1B, not $1.34B — delta now correctly ~90% (nearly double) per Brennan's framing.
Active 501(c)(4) Orgs Tracked ANALYST
312
CDO research universe; not all c4s exist for political activity
PAC-to-PAC Shell Transfers ESTIMATED
$482M
CDO aggregation of FEC Sch A/B intermediary chains — FEC.gov
Congressional Trades Flagged ANALYST
147
CDO correlation model; Capitol Trades+Quiver scrape

📊 DARK MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS

CRITICAL INTEL

🏛️ 501(c)(4) DARK MONEY ORGANIZATIONS

312 TRACKED ESTIMATED — IRS 990 + ProPublica cross-reference, not round-trip-verified per org
ESTIMATED label scope: The "Est. Political Spend" column below is a CDO-derived estimate of each org's politically-attributable spend, computed by cross-referencing IRS Form 990 Schedule C with FEC IE filings. The "IRS 990 Revenue" column is sourced directly from ProPublica's 2023 990 ingest. Phase 8 deliverable: live per-org round-trip from ProPublica API replacing this static table. Until then, treat individual org rows as approximations of public-filing data, not measured ground truth.
Organization Est. Political Spend IRS 990 Revenue Key Downstream PACs Lean Last 990 Filed
Americans for Prosperity (Koch) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $72.4M $118.2M AFP Action, AFP Ads R 2023
One Nation (McConnell-aligned) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $63.8M $90.5M Senate Leadership Fund R 2023
Crossroads GPS (Rove) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $48.2M $76.1M American Crossroads R 2023
American Action Network ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $44.7M $68.3M Congressional Leadership Fund R 2023
Concord Fund (Judicial Crisis Network) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $38.1M $52.4M JCN Super PAC R 2023
Stand Together (Koch Network) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $35.6M $502.0M Multiple Koch-aligned R 2023
Club for Growth (Action) ESTIMATEDFEC C00487470filing as of 2023-12-31 $31.2M $45.8M Club for Growth PAC R 2023
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $28.9M $41.7M SBA List PAC R 2023
Heritage Action for America ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $22.4M $38.9M Heritage Foundation network R 2023
Turning Point USA ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $18.7M $80.5M TP Action R 2023
Organization Est. Political Spend IRS 990 Revenue Key Downstream PACs Lean Last 990 Filed
Majority Forward ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $98.7M $131.2M Senate Majority PAC D 2023
House Majority Forward ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $52.1M $72.8M House Majority PAC D 2023
Sixteen Thirty Fund (Arabella) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $47.3M $390.4M Multiple progressive PACs D 2023
Civic Participation Action Fund ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $38.5M $55.0M Voter mobilization orgs D 2023
Demand Justice ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $24.8M $34.2M Judicial nomination campaigns D 2023
League of Conservation Voters (c4) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $22.1M $45.6M LCV Victory Fund D 2023
Planned Parenthood Action Fund ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $18.3M $62.7M PP Votes D 2023
NARAL Pro-Choice America ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $14.6M $28.3M Reproductive Freedom for All PAC D 2023
Organization Est. Political Spend IRS 990 Revenue Primary Focus Lean Last 990 Filed
U.S. Chamber of Commerce ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $65.2M $226.8M Pro-business, anti-regulation R-lean 2023
NRA Institute for Legislative Action ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $28.4M $48.2M Gun rights R 2023
AIPAC (c4 arm) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $42.3M $95.1M Israel policy Bipartisan 2023
Pharmaceutical Research & Mfrs of America ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $19.8M $452.3M Pharma policy Bipartisan 2023
Americans for Tax Reform (Norquist) ESTIMATEDIRS 990 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 $12.4M $22.6M Tax policy R 2023

📋 527 ORGANIZATION TRACKER

IRS LAG: 6–18 MONTHS LIVE — IRS 8872 staleness via ProPublica 527 Explorer
Organization Type Reported Receipts Reported Expenditures Reporting Lag Focus
Republican State Leadership Committee ESTIMATEDIRS 8872 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 527 $68.4M $62.1M 8 months State legislative races
Democratic Governors Association ESTIMATEDIRS 8872 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 527 $94.7M $88.3M 7 months Gubernatorial races
Republican Governors Association ESTIMATEDIRS 8872 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 527 $111.2M $105.8M 9 months Gubernatorial races
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee ESTIMATEDIRS 8872 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 527 $38.5M $35.2M 11 months State legislatures
National Education Association Fund ESTIMATEDIRS 8872 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 527 $32.8M $29.4M 14 months Education policy, Dem support
EMILY's List (Non-Federal) ESTIMATEDIRS 8872 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 527 $48.1M $44.7M 6 months Women candidates
American Federation of State/County Workers ESTIMATEDIRS 8872 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 527 $26.3M $24.1M 12 months Public sector labor
SEIU COPE ESTIMATEDIRS 8872 (ProPublica)filing as of 2023-12-31 527 $41.9M $38.6M 10 months Service workers, Dem support

🗺️ STATE PARTY INVESTMENT TRACKER

FEDERAL BACKDOOR ESTIMATED — FEC state party + FollowTheMoney; static table LIVE — FollowTheMoney tile below (when API tier active)
National IE total (2024)
All federal & state IEs reported to FTM
State candidates raised
Top 100/state across battleground sample
States queried
Battleground sample, 2024
Source
FollowTheMoney.org
Loading…
State Party Committee Total Receipts Transfers from National % from National Top Beneficiary Race Disclosure Grade
Georgia Democratic Party SOURCEDFEC C00027987filing as of 2024-12-31 $48.2M $31.4M 65% Warnock Senate (2022), Biden (2024) D+
Pennsylvania Republican Party SOURCEDFEC C00007898filing as of 2024-12-31 $52.8M $38.7M 73% McCormick Senate, Trump (2024) C
Arizona Democratic Party SOURCEDFEC C00010488filing as of 2024-12-31 $35.6M $22.1M 62% Gallego Senate, Harris (2024) C+
Wisconsin Republican Party SOURCEDFEC C00021808filing as of 2024-12-31 $41.3M $28.9M 70% Hovde Senate, Trump (2024) C-
Nevada Democratic Party SOURCEDFEC C00010785filing as of 2024-12-31 $28.4M $19.7M 69% Rosen Senate, Harris (2024) B-
Michigan Democratic Party SOURCEDFEC C00009548filing as of 2024-12-31 $38.7M $24.3M 63% Slotkin Senate, Harris (2024) B
North Carolina Republican Party SOURCEDFEC C00010892filing as of 2024-12-31 $44.9M $33.2M 74% Robinson Gov, Trump (2024) D
Florida Republican Party SOURCEDFEC C00009536filing as of 2024-12-31 $62.5M $41.8M 67% Scott Senate, Trump (2024) C

🕸️ PAC SHELL & TRANSFER NETWORK

$482M OBSCURED FEC Sch A/B as of 2024-12-31 ANALYST — CDO forensic analysis of FEC Sch A/B transfer chains
Shell PAC Type Lifespan Total Throughput Destination Red Flags
American Principles Fund ANALYSTFEC IE filings (CLF)as of 2026-05-17 SHELL 18 months $32.4M Congressional Leadership Fund Single source, single destination
Heartland Resurgence PAC ANALYSTFEC IE filings 2024as of 2026-05-17 SHELL 6 weeks $18.7M Multiple Senate race PACs Pop-up, formed 45 days before election
Coalition for American Values ANALYSTFEC IE filings 2024as of 2026-05-17 SHELL 4 months $24.1M AFP Action → down-ballot Multi-hop transfer chain
Secure Democracy Project ANALYSTFEC IE filings 2024as of 2026-05-17 SHELL 3 months $15.3M Senate Majority PAC c4-funded single transfer
Americans for Progressive Action ANALYSTFEC IE filings 2024as of 2026-05-17 SHELL 8 weeks $11.8M House Majority PAC Dissolved post-election

📈 CONGRESSIONAL STOCK TRADE TRACKER

STOCK ACT CORRELATION ANALYST — proprietary correlation model; underlying disclosures SOURCED to Capitol Trades + EFD
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA)
ARMED SERVICES • HOMELAND SECURITY SOURCED EFD filing filing as of 2024-12-31
Purchased $250K–$500K in defense stocks (Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman) — 12 days before Armed Services markup on $886B defense authorization.
⚠ FLAG: Trade within committee markup window | Donor: Defense sector PACs ($47K)
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL)
ARMED SERVICES • AGRICULTURE SOURCED CapitolTrades filing as of 2024-09-30
Sold $50K–$100K in Norfolk Southern — 4 days before East Palestine derailment news cycle. 83 trades flagged in 2023-2024, consistently late filings.
⚠ FLAG: Pattern of late disclosure (avg 68 days vs 45-day requirement)
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX)
FOREIGN AFFAIRS CHAIR SOURCED CapitolTrades filing as of 2024-09-30
Portfolio trades in Taiwan Semiconductor ($100K–$250K) during period of classified China briefings. Wealthiest member of Congress ($113M net worth).
⚠ FLAG: Sector-relevant trade during classified briefing period
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA, former)
FULL COMMITTEE ACCESS (SPEAKER) SOURCED CapitolTrades filing as of 2024-09-30
2021-2024: $5.6M in tech options (NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL). Paul Pelosi trades outperformed S&P 500 by 34%. Consistent pattern of tech purchases before favorable legislation.
⚠ FLAG: Systematic outperformance correlated with legislative calendar
Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC, former)
INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE CHAIR ANALYST DOJ closed 2021 filing as of 2020-02-13
Sold $628K–$1.7M in stocks on Feb 13, 2020 — 7 days after classified COVID briefing, weeks before market crash. DOJ investigation dropped without charges.
⚠ FLAG: Post-classified-briefing trade | DOJ investigation closed
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX)
ENERGY & COMMERCE ANALYST CapitolTrades filing as of 2024-09-30
Multiple energy sector trades ($15K–$50K ranges) coinciding with E&C committee votes on natural gas export policy.
⚠ FLAG: Sector-committee alignment in 7 of 12 recent trades
Member Party Trades (2023-2025) Est. Volume Late Filings Flagged
Tommy Tuberville SOURCEDCapitolTradesfiling as of 2024-12-31R132$4.2M89 (67%)83
Dan Crenshaw SOURCEDCapitolTradesfiling as of 2024-12-31R94$1.8M31 (33%)18
Josh Gottheimer SOURCEDCapitolTradesfiling as of 2024-12-31D87$2.1M12 (14%)9
Ro Khanna SOURCEDCapitolTradesfiling as of 2024-12-31D72$3.4M4 (6%)3
Mark Green SOURCEDCapitolTradesfiling as of 2024-12-31R68$1.5M28 (41%)14
Nancy Pelosi (spouse) SOURCEDCapitolTradesfiling as of 2024-12-31D64$5.6M2 (3%)11
Rick Scott SOURCEDCapitolTradesfiling as of 2024-12-31R58$2.8M15 (26%)7
Michael McCaul SOURCEDCapitolTradesfiling as of 2024-12-31R51$8.1M8 (16%)12

🎬 COMMISSIONED CONTENT & MEDIA OPS

PROPAGANDA TRACKING ANALYST — "strongly suspected" funding attributions; treat budgets as wide ranges
Production / Outlet Type Known/Suspected Funder Est. Budget Target Election Impact
"2000 Mules" (Dinesh D'Souza) ANALYSTOpenSecrets dark-moneyas of 2026-05-17 Documentary Salem Media / True the Vote $2.5M Election integrity narrative Debunked; still drove $50M+ in fundraising
Epoch Times Network ANALYSTIRS 990 (ProPublica)as of 2026-05-17 Media Outlet Falun Gong / unknown donors $65M+/yr Pro-Trump, anti-China content Top FB political spender 2019-2020
PragerU Content Network ANALYSTIRS 990 (ProPublica)as of 2026-05-17 Digital Media Wilks Brothers (fracking), DonorsTrust $48M/yr Conservative youth education 2B+ YouTube views, K-12 curriculum push
Courier Newsroom Network ANALYSTIRS 990 (ProPublica)as of 2026-05-17 Astroturf News Acronym (Dem c4) $25M Local news in swing states 8 state-level outlets mimicking local news
American Encore Media Buys ANALYSTFEC IE filingsas of 2026-05-17 Issue Ads Center to Protect Patient Rights (Koch) $41M Healthcare policy "issue" ads Targeted ACA repeal races
Turning Point USA Content ANALYSTIRS 990 (ProPublica)as of 2026-05-17 Social Media Multiple c4 donors via TPUSA $32M Youth conservative mobilization Largest conservative student org

📑 FEC REPORTING GAP ANALYSIS

COMPLIANCE FAILURES ANALYST — cross-tabulation of FEC bulk Form 3/3X originals vs amendments

AMENDMENT RATE ANALYST FEC.gov FEC bulk, 2024 cycle, as of 2024-12-31

25.3%

Of all campaign committees filed amendments to their FEC reports in 2024 — a quarter of all campaigns had significant enough errors to require corrections.

LATE FILINGS ANALYST FEC.gov FEC bulk, 2024 cycle, as of 2024-12-31

1,847

Campaign committees filed reports late in the 2024 cycle. Average delay: 23 days. Total late filing penalties assessed: $2.1M (often unpaid).

FEC ENFORCEMENT DEADLOCKS ANALYST FEC enforcement FEC docket, as of 2024-12-31

72%

Of enforcement matters resulted in 3-3 partisan deadlocks in 2023-2024. Zero enforcement actions on dark money complaints since 2020.

MISSING EMPLOYER DATA ANALYST FEC.gov FEC bulk, as of 2024-12-31

38%

Of itemized individual contributions (>$200) are missing required employer/occupation data — making it impossible to track industry-level giving patterns.

48-HOUR NOTICES ANALYST FEC.gov FEC 48-hr, as of 2024-11-15

$312M

In last-minute contributions reported via 48-hour notices in final 20 days of 2024 cycle — often from dark money intermediaries maximizing late-game impact.

CONDUIT VIOLATIONS ANALYST FEC.gov as of 2026-05-17

~$89M

Estimated straw donor / conduit contribution violations reported by campaigns but not enforced due to FEC deadlock. Includes bundling disclosure failures.

🔌 DATA SOURCE INVENTORY & API STATUS

7 ACTIVE SOURCES
Source Data Type API Status Update Freq Coverage
FEC API LIVEFEC API docslast updated 2026-05-17 PAC/Super PAC, IE, contributions ✓ ACTIVE Daily Federal races since 1979
ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer LIVEProPublica Nonprofit Explorerlast updated 2026-05-17 IRS 990 filings, 501(c)(3)/(c)(4) ✓ ACTIVE Quarterly 1.8M+ nonprofits since 2001
IRS 527 Political Org File LIVEIRS Political Org Filelast updated 2026-05-17 527 org filings, receipts, expenditures ✓ ACTIVE 6-18 month lag All 527 orgs since 2000
ProPublica 527 Explorer LIVEProPublica 527 Explorerlast updated 2026-05-17 527 finances, donors, spending ✓ ACTIVE Varies Major 527s since 2000
Capitol Trades / Quiver Quant LIVECapitolTrades.comlast updated 2026-05-17 Congressional stock disclosures ⚡ SCRAPE Daily All STOCK Act filings since 2012
Senate/House EFD System LIVEEFD Searchlast updated 2026-05-17 Financial disclosures (official) ⚡ PDF PARSE 45-day lag All members, current session
FollowTheMoney.org LIVEFollowTheMoney.orglast updated 2026-05-17 State-level campaign finance ✓ ACTIVE Varies by state All 50 states + territories
OpenSecrets (Archived) GAPOpenSecrets archivelast updated 2025-04-15 Historical dark money analysis ✗ API DEAD (Apr 2025) Bulk data downloads still available

🎯 DARK MONEY BY RACE — 2024 CYCLE

CRITICAL TOP 25 RACES ESTIMATED — FEC IE filings + Brennan Center; per-race R/D splits are analyst aggregations
RANK RACE STATE CANDIDATES DARK $ FOR R DARK $ FOR D R / D BALANCE TOTAL DARK $ WINNER
1 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Montana Sheehy (R) Tester (D) $89.4M $72.1M $161.5M Sheehy (R)
2 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Ohio Moreno (R) Brown (D) $81.2M $76.8M $158.0M Moreno (R)
3 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Pennsylvania McCormick (R) Casey (D) $74.6M $68.3M $142.9M McCormick (R)
4 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Michigan Rogers (R) Slotkin (D) $62.8M $71.4M $134.2M Slotkin (D)
5 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Wisconsin Hovde (R) Baldwin (D) $58.3M $64.7M $123.0M Baldwin (D)
6 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Arizona Lake (R) Gallego (D) $54.1M $61.2M $115.3M Gallego (D)
7 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Nevada Brown, S. (R) Rosen (D) $47.6M $52.9M $100.5M Rosen (D)
8 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Texas Cruz (R) Allred (D) $51.8M $44.2M $96.0M Cruz (R)
9 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 West Virginia Justice (R) Oliverio (D) $18.4M $4.2M $22.6M Justice (R)
10 Senate SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (Senate)filing as of 2024-12-31 Georgia Various (R Primary) $14.8M $6.1M $20.9M
11 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 NY-17 Lawler (R) Mondaire (D) $22.4M $26.8M $49.2M Mondaire (D)
12 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 CA-27 Garcia (R) Whitesides (D) $18.7M $24.1M $42.8M Whitesides (D)
13 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 OR-05 Chavez-DeRemer (R) Hoyle (D) $16.2M $19.8M $36.0M Hoyle (D)
14 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 NE-02 Bacon (R) Vargas (D) $17.1M $15.6M $32.7M Bacon (R)
15 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 AK-AL Begich (R) Peltola (D) $14.3M $16.9M $31.2M Begich (R)
16 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 CO-08 Kirkmeyer (R) Caraveo (D) $15.8M $12.4M $28.2M Kirkmeyer (R)
17 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 PA-07 Mackenzie (R) Wild (D) $13.1M $14.6M $27.7M Wild (D)
18 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 VA-07 Derrick Anderson (R) Spanberger (D) $12.9M $13.2M $26.1M Open (Gov race)
19 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 MI-07 Barrett (R) Curtis Hertel (D) $11.4M $14.1M $25.5M Hertel (D)
20 House SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (House)filing as of 2024-12-31 NY-19 Molinaro (R) Riley (D) $11.8M $12.3M $24.1M Molinaro (R)
21 Governor SOURCEDFollowTheMoney (state)filing as of 2024-12-31 North Carolina Robinson (R) Stein (D) $8.2M $18.7M $26.9M Stein (D)
22 Governor SOURCEDFollowTheMoney (state)filing as of 2024-12-31 New Hampshire Ayotte (R) Craig (D) $9.6M $11.4M $21.0M Ayotte (R)
23 Governor SOURCEDFollowTheMoney (state)filing as of 2024-12-31 Washington Reichert (R) Ferguson (D) $7.8M $11.1M $18.9M Ferguson (D)
24 Governor SOURCEDFollowTheMoney (state)filing as of 2024-12-31 Indiana Braun (R) McCormick (D) $10.2M $5.3M $15.5M Braun (R)
25 Governor SOURCEDFollowTheMoney (state)filing as of 2024-12-31 Missouri Kehoe (R) Quade (D) $8.1M $4.8M $12.9M Kehoe (R)

⚠️ TOTAL TOP 25 DARK MONEY ANALYST FEC IE summation CDO 2026-05-17

$1.56B

82% of all 2024 dark money concentrated in just 25 races — extreme geographic targeting

🔴 R-SIDE DARK MONEY WINS ANALYST CDO win-rate analysis as of 2026-05-17

14 of 25

Races where Republican-side dark money was higher — and the Republican candidate won 10 of those 14

📊 AVG DARK $ / RACE ANALYST FEC IE + Brennan baseline as of 2026-05-17

$62.4M

Average dark money per top-25 race — up 47% from $42.5M average in 2020 cycle

👤 CANDIDATE DARK MONEY PROFILES

HIGH PRIORITY TOP 20 BY DARK $ RECEIVED ESTIMATED — FEC IE + IRS 990 cross-reference; "top 3 dark money orgs" per candidate is analyst attribution
# CANDIDATE PARTY RACE DARK $ SUPPORT TOP 3 DARK MONEY ORGS % OUTSIDE $
1 Tim Sheehy SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R MT-Sen $89.4M One Nation ($34.2M), AFP Action ($22.1M), Senate Leadership Fund* ($18.6M) 68%
2 Bernie Moreno SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R OH-Sen $81.2M Senate Leadership Fund* ($31.4M), One Nation ($19.8M), Americans for Prosperity ($14.7M) 64%
3 Sherrod Brown SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D OH-Sen $76.8M Majority Forward ($28.6M), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($18.2M), League of Conservation Voters ($12.1M) 61%
4 Dave McCormick SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R PA-Sen $74.6M Senate Leadership Fund* ($28.9M), One Nation ($16.4M), Club for Growth Action ($12.8M) 62%
5 Jon Tester SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D MT-Sen $72.1M Last Best Place PAC* ($33.8M via Majority Forward), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($14.2M), LCV Victory Fund ($11.8M) 65%
6 Elissa Slotkin SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D MI-Sen $71.4M Majority Forward ($26.1M), Senate Majority PAC* ($19.8M), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($11.4M) 58%
7 Bob Casey SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D PA-Sen $68.3M Majority Forward ($24.7M), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($16.8M), Planned Parenthood Votes ($10.1M) 56%
8 Tammy Baldwin SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D WI-Sen $64.7M Majority Forward ($22.3M), WisDems* via 1630 Fund ($16.1M), EMILY's List ($9.8M) 59%
9 Mike Rogers SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R MI-Sen $62.8M Senate Leadership Fund* ($24.6M), One Nation ($14.2M), AFP Action ($11.8M) 55%
10 Ruben Gallego SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D AZ-Sen $61.2M Majority Forward ($21.8M), Senate Majority PAC* ($17.4M), LCV Victory Fund ($8.9M) 57%

* = Super PAC primarily funded by dark money c4 pass-throughs. Amounts include IE spending for candidate + against opponent.

# CANDIDATE PARTY RACE DARK $ SUPPORT TOP 3 DARK MONEY ORGS % OUTSIDE $
1 Mondaire Jones SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D NY-17 $26.8M House Majority PAC* ($12.4M), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($6.8M), League of Conservation Voters ($4.1M) 72%
2 George Whitesides SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D CA-27 $24.1M House Majority PAC* ($11.2M), Majority Forward ($5.4M), EMILY's List ($3.8M) 68%
3 Mike Lawler SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R NY-17 $22.4M Congressional Leadership Fund* ($10.8M), One Nation ($5.2M), AFP Action ($3.6M) 65%
4 Janelle Bynum SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D OR-05 $19.8M House Majority PAC* ($9.6M), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($4.2M), LCV Victory Fund ($3.1M) 71%
5 Mike Garcia SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R CA-27 $18.7M Congressional Leadership Fund* ($8.4M), AFP Action ($4.8M), American Action Network ($3.2M) 63%
6 Don Bacon SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R NE-02 $17.1M Congressional Leadership Fund* ($7.8M), One Nation ($4.6M), U.S. Chamber ($2.9M) 61%
7 Mary Peltola SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D AK-AL $16.9M House Majority PAC* ($8.1M), Majority Forward ($4.2M), LCV Victory Fund ($2.4M) 67%
8 Lori Chavez-DeRemer SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R OR-05 $16.2M Congressional Leadership Fund* ($7.2M), AFP Action ($4.1M), Am. Action Network ($2.8M) 64%
9 Yadira Caraveo SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D CO-08 $12.4M House Majority PAC* ($5.8M), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($3.1M), EMILY's List ($2.2M) 58%
10 Nick Begich III SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R AK-AL $14.3M Congressional Leadership Fund* ($6.4M), One Nation ($3.8M), AFP Action ($2.4M) 62%
# CANDIDATE PARTY RACE DARK $ SUPPORT TOP 3 DARK MONEY ORGS % OUTSIDE $
1 Josh Stein SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D NC-Gov $18.7M Democratic Governors Association ($8.4M), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($4.6M), Building a Healthier NC ($3.2M) 74%
2 Bob Ferguson SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 D WA-Gov $11.1M DGA ($4.8M), Sixteen Thirty Fund ($3.2M), WA Conservation Voters ($1.8M) 62%
3 Kelly Ayotte SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R NH-Gov $9.6M Republican Governors Association ($4.2M), AFP Action ($2.8M), Am. Action Network ($1.4M) 58%
4 Mike Braun SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R IN-Gov $10.2M RGA ($5.1M), Club for Growth ($2.4M), Indiana Opportunity Fund ($1.6M) 54%
5 Dave Reichert SOURCEDFEC candidate filingsfiling as of 2024-12-31 R WA-Gov $7.8M RGA ($3.6M), AFP Action ($2.1M), WA Business Roundtable ($1.2M) 51%

⚔️ CONSERVATIVE vs PROGRESSIVE DARK MONEY

CRITICAL ANALYSIS 2010-2024 TREND SOURCED — FEC Bulk — loading… as of —

🔴 CONSERVATIVE DARK MONEY

$664M

ANALYST Brennan Center subset as of 2026-05-17 · 501(c)(4): $486M • 527: $82M • Shell PACs: $61M • State Party Pass-throughs: $35M

KEY NETWORKS: One Nation, AFP/Koch, Crossroads GPS, Club for Growth, Am. Action Network

🔵 PROGRESSIVE DARK MONEY

$1.2B

ANALYST Brennan Center subset as of 2026-05-17 · 501(c)(4): $532M • 527: $142M • Shell PACs: $48M • State Party Pass-throughs: $478M

KEY NETWORKS: Sixteen Thirty Fund, Majority Forward, Future Forward, LCV, Arabella Advisors

⚪ NONPARTISAN / INDEPENDENT

$36M

ANALYST Brennan Center subset as of 2026-05-17 · 501(c)(4): $18M • 527: $11M • Issue orgs: $7M

KEY ORGS: No Labels ($14M), Unite America ($8M), Issue One ($6M)

⚠️ FINDING: Progressive dark money outspent conservative 1.8:1 in 2024 — the widest gap ever. But conservative dark money had a higher win rate (58% vs 49%), suggesting more strategic targeting.
⚠️ FINDING: ANALYST FEC C00767212 + IRS 990 FEC + IRS 2024 cycle · Future Forward USA Action alone ($304M) exceeded the ENTIRE conservative 501(c)(4) spending outside of Senate/House leadership groups. One progressive c4 = the entire right-wing dark money apparatus.
⚠️ FINDING: The Arabella Advisors network (Sixteen Thirty Fund, New Venture Fund, Windward Fund, North Fund) channeled an estimated $892M ANALYST IRS 990 network aggregation CDO 2026-05-17 in the 2024 cycle — making it the single largest dark money network in American politics.
⚠️ FINDING: Conservative dark money is more concentrated in c4 → Super PAC pass-throughs (73% of total), while progressive dark money uses more diverse channels — c4s, 527s, state parties, and direct digital ad spending.

🗺️ WHERE OUTSIDE SPENDING IS REGISTERED — 2024 CYCLE

ALL 50 STATES PER CAPITA ANALYSIS SOURCED — FEC Bulk — loading… as of —
RANK STATE TOTAL DARK $ CONSERVATIVE PROGRESSIVE DOMINANT PER CAPITA KEY RACES
1 Montana SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (MT)filing as of 2024-12-31 $161.5M $89.4M $72.1M R +$17.3M $146.83 Senate (Sheehy vs Tester)
2 Ohio SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (OH)filing as of 2024-12-31 $158.0M $81.2M $76.8M R +$4.4M $13.46 Senate (Moreno vs Brown)
3 Pennsylvania SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (PA)filing as of 2024-12-31 $170.6M $87.7M $82.9M R +$4.8M $13.12 Senate + House (PA-07, PA-08, PA-10)
4 Michigan SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (MI)filing as of 2024-12-31 $159.7M $74.2M $85.5M D +$11.3M $15.89 Senate + House (MI-07, MI-08, MI-10)
5 Wisconsin SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (WI)filing as of 2024-12-31 $123.0M $58.3M $64.7M D +$6.4M $20.97 Senate (Hovde vs Baldwin)
6 Arizona SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (AZ)filing as of 2024-12-31 $115.3M $54.1M $61.2M D +$7.1M $15.60 Senate (Lake vs Gallego)
7 Nevada SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (NV)filing as of 2024-12-31 $100.5M $47.6M $52.9M D +$5.3M $30.92 Senate (Brown vs Rosen)
8 Texas SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (TX)filing as of 2024-12-31 $96.0M $51.8M $44.2M R +$7.6M $3.18 Senate (Cruz vs Allred)
9 New York SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (NY)filing as of 2024-12-31 $87.4M $40.1M $47.3M D +$7.2M $4.40 House (NY-17, NY-19, NY-04, NY-22)
10 North Carolina SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (NC)filing as of 2024-12-31 $68.2M $28.6M $39.6M D +$11.0M $6.32 Governor (Robinson vs Stein) + House
11 California SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (CA)filing as of 2024-12-31 $62.8M $28.4M $34.4M D +$6.0M $1.59 House (CA-27, CA-22, CA-45, CA-47)
12 Oregon SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (OR)filing as of 2024-12-31 $42.1M $18.4M $23.7M D +$5.3M $9.88 House (OR-05)
13 Alaska SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (AK)filing as of 2024-12-31 $31.2M $14.3M $16.9M D +$2.6M $42.28 House At-Large (Begich vs Peltola)
14 Nebraska SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (NE)filing as of 2024-12-31 $32.7M $17.1M $15.6M R +$1.5M $16.56 House (NE-02)
15 Colorado SOURCEDFEC IE 2024 (CO)filing as of 2024-12-31 $28.2M $15.8M $12.4M R +$3.4M $4.72 House (CO-08, CO-03)

Per capita calculated using 2023 Census Bureau state population estimates. Includes federal races only (Senate, House, and Governor IE spending tracked via FEC). State-level ballot initiative dark money not included.

📊 DARK MONEY vs ELECTION OUTCOMES

CORRELATION ANALYSIS 2024 CYCLE ANALYST — correlation derived from top-25 dark $ ranking (above); r=0.34, n=25 (small)

OVERALL WIN RATE ANALYST CDO top-25 analysis as of 2026-05-17

60%

Higher-dark-money side won 15 of 25 top races (60%)

SPENDING > $100M ANALYST CDO top-25 subset as of 2026-05-17

5 of 8

In races with $100M+ dark money, the higher-spending side won 63%

INCUMBENT FACTOR ANALYST CDO incumbent subset as of 2026-05-17

4 of 7

Incumbents who were outspent in dark money still won 57% of the time

DARK $ vs MARGIN ANALYST CDO correlation r=0.34 as of 2026-05-17

r = 0.34

Weak positive correlation between dark money advantage and victory margin (not deterministic)

⚠️ KEY TAKEAWAY: ANALYST FEC IE per-race CDO 2026-05-17 · Dark money is necessary but not sufficient. In the 2024 cycle, 10 races saw the outspent side win anyway — including MI-Sen (Slotkin overcame $8.6M R dark money advantage), WI-Sen (Baldwin overcame despite close spending), and AZ-Sen (Gallego won with $7.1M D advantage). The most predictive variable remains partisan lean of the state (r = 0.72), followed by incumbency status (r = 0.48), then dark money advantage (r = 0.34).

📖 METHODOLOGY & LEGAL FRAMEWORK

INTELLIGENCE SOURCING
🔍 DATA INTEGRITY FOOTER · DARK MONEY TRACKER
LIVE / SOURCED (FEC bulk + named public datasets)
  • Conservative vs Progressive category chart — /api/v1/fec-bulk/categories
  • IE Committees by Registration State chart — /api/v1/fec-bulk/ie-by-state
  • State Party Funding chart (FEC 2024 final, queried 2026-05-02)
  • FollowTheMoney Live Tile (active when FTM API tier approved)
  • Headline $1.9B 2024 cycle total — Brennan Center
ESTIMATED / ANALYST (static tables, cross-referenced public filings)
  • 501(c)(4) org tables — IRS 990 + ProPublica + FEC IE cross-reference
  • 527 tables — IRS Political Org File (6–18 month lag; Phase 8 8872 ingest will move to SOURCED)
  • State Party transfer table (per-row R/D splits)
  • Shell PAC throughput table
  • Race-by-race + candidate-by-candidate dark $ attributions
  • Top-25 aggregate ($1.56B), avg/race ($62.4M), 47% growth vs $42.5M 2020-cycle baseline — ANALYST (FEC IE 2024 summation + 2020 baseline from Brennan Center 2024 cycle report)
  • State recipient totals + R/D splits + per-capita rankings
  • Dark money win-rate (60% overall, r=0.34) — n=25, ANALYST
  • Congressional stock-trade flagging (proprietary correlation model)
  • Arabella $892M network estimate — ANALYST aggregation across 4 c4s (ProPublica IRS 990 search)
  • FEC gap stats (25.3% amendment, 72% deadlock, 38% missing employer)
Compliance: Per CATALYST_DATA_INTEGRITY.md (effective 2026-05-17). Daily watchdog (Phase 8.2) will scrape this page and flag any new hardcoded numeric value introduced without a label. External-quote rule: Any ESTIMATED or ANALYST figure quoted outside Catalyst must retain the inline label, link to the source dataset, or be replaced with the LIVE/SOURCED equivalent. Phase 8 deliverables to upgrade tables to LIVE: (1) ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer live ingest per c4 org, (2) IRS 8872 ingest for 527s, (3) FEC bulk IE per-race rollup replacing static race table, (4) Capitol Trades / EFD parser for stock-trade tab. Pod 4 audit, 2026-05-17.
CATALYST DEMOCRACY OPERATIONS — DARK MONEY INTELLIGENCE MODULE
DATA SOURCES: FEC API • IRS FORM 990 • IRS 527 FILE • PROPUBLICA • FOLLOWTHEMONEY • STOCK ACT FILINGS
CLASSIFICATION: INTERNAL — NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
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